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Wed Mar 4 6:30 pm

La Liga - Week 30 of 41

Real Madrid What If?

The Real Madrid What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Real Madrid What If?

Next Game - Celta Vigo (10‑6‑10)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 20 4 3 63 24% 72% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Current Standings 19 4 3 60 20% 74% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
Lose Next Game 19 5 3 60 13% 77% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 36% 61% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Current Standings 20% 74% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
Worst Case Scenario 10% 79% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
Best Case Scenario
   Real Madrid beats Celta Vigo
   Athletic Bilbao beats Barcelona
 Worst Case Scenario
   Celta Vigo beats Real Madrid
   Barcelona beats Athletic Bilbao
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12 of 12 100% 31 4 3 96 97% 3% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 12 92% 30 5 3 93 82% 18% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 12 83% 29 6 3 90 54% 46% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 12 75% 28 7 3 87 27% 73% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 12 67% 27 8 3 84 9% 89% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 12 58% 26 9 3 81 2% 86% 12% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 12 50% 25 10 3 78 <1% 65% 32% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 12 42% 24 11 3 75 <1% 34% 51% 15% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 12 33% 23 12 3 72 <1% 11% 47% 41% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 12 25% 22 13 3 69 <1% 2% 24% 65% 9% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 of 12 17% 21 14 3 66 <1% <1% 6% 60% 31% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
1 of 12 8% 20 15 3 63 X <1% 1% 30% 54% 15% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
0 of 12 0% 19 16 3 60 X <1% <1% 7% 43% 43% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes La Liga Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round