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Sun Jan 12 9:15 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 23 of 40

Marseille What If?

The Marseille What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Marseille What If?

Next Game - Strasbourg (6‑6‑5)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 12 3 3 39 11% 62% 17% 6% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 11 3 3 36 10% 59% 18% 8% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 11 4 3 36 6% 54% 22% 10% 5% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 16% 60% 15% 5% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 10% 59% 18% 8% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 5% 54% 22% 10% 5% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Montpellier beats AS Monaco
   Lens beats Paris SG
   Marseille beats Strasbourg
 Worst Case Scenario
   AS Monaco beats Montpellier
   Paris SG beats Lens
   Strasbourg beats Marseille
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
17 of 17 100% 28 3 3 87 90% 10% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 17 94% 27 4 3 84 74% 26% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 17 88% 26 5 3 81 51% 49% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 17 82% 25 6 3 78 32% 68% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 17 76% 24 7 3 75 16% 83% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 17 71% 23 8 3 72 7% 85% 8% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 17 65% 22 9 3 69 2% 72% 24% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 17 59% 21 10 3 66 <1% 46% 43% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 17 53% 20 11 3 63 <1% 17% 44% 30% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 17 47% 19 12 3 60 <1% 4% 21% 39% 28% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 17 41% 18 13 3 57 <1% <1% 4% 19% 37% 29% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
6 of 17 35% 17 14 3 54 <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 36% 33% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
5 of 17 29% 16 15 3 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 32% 35% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
4 of 17 24% 15 16 3 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 25% 37% 23% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3 of 17 18% 14 17 3 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 30% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2 of 17 12% 13 18 3 42 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 30% 36% 19% 4% <1% <1% <1%
1 of 17 6% 12 19 3 39 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 23% 39% 26% 6% <1% <1%
0 of 17 0% 11 20 3 36 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 21% 42% 30% 4% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff