The Ball State Cardinals What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Ball State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Win Next Game | 3 | 2 | 1% | 5% | 8% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 1% |
| Lose Next Game | 2 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 11% | 11% | 1% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 1% | 5% | 8% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 1% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 11% | 11% | 1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Ball State beats Kent State |
Worst Case Scenario Kent State beats Ball State |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | ||
| 4 of 4 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 14% | 43% | 33% | 11% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 4 | 75% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 2% | 20% | 38% | 29% | 10% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 4 | 50% | 4 | 4 | X | X | <1% | 1% | 11% | 27% | 30% | 21% | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 10% | 30% | 36% | 20% | 3% | <1% |
| 0 of 4 | 0% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 4% | 24% | 64% | 8% |