Austin FC What If?

	Resultant Record				Conference Playoff Spots									No Playoffs No POs
	W	L	T	Pts	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^** First Round Bye	7^** First Round Bye	8^*** First Round Home Field Advantage	9	10
Win Next Game	4	6	5	17	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	2%	95%
Current Standings	3	6	5	14	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	97%
Lose Next Game	3	7	5	14	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	98%

	Conference Playoff Spots									No Playoffs No POs
	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^** First Round Bye	7^** First Round Bye	8^*** First Round Home Field Advantage	9	10
Best Case Scenario	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	2%	95%
Current Standings	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	97%
Worst Case Scenario	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	98%
Best Case Scenario Austin FC beats St. Louis City SC					Worst Case Scenario St. Louis City SC beats Austin FC

Notes
Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three

Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	Resultant Record				Conference Playoff Spots									No Playoffs No POs
Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	W	L	T	Pts	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^** First Round Bye	7^** First Round Bye	8^*** First Round Home Field Advantage	9	10
20 of 20	100%	23	6	5	74	51%	42%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^
19 of 20	95%	22	7	5	71	27%	50%	22%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	^	^
18 of 20	90%	21	8	5	68	11%	42%	39%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	^
17 of 20	85%	20	9	5	65	3%	24%	48%	22%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16 of 20	80%	19	10	5	62	<1%	9%	37%	39%	14%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15 of 20	75%	18	11	5	59	<1%	1%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14 of 20	70%	17	12	5	56	<1%	<1%	3%	19%	38%	29%	10%	1%	<1%	<1%
13 of 20	65%	16	13	5	53	<1%	<1%	<1%	3%	18%	36%	30%	10%	2%	<1%
12 of 20	60%	15	14	5	50	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	4%
11 of 20	55%	14	15	5	47	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	11%	27%	34%	26%
10 of 20	50%	13	16	5	44	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	7%	22%	71%
9 of 20	45%	12	17	5	41	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	4%	96%
8 of 20	40%	11	18	5	38	X	X	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
7 of 20	35%	10	19	5	35	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
6 of 20	30%	9	20	5	32	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
5 of 20	25%	8	21	5	29	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
4 of 20	20%	7	22	5	26	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	>99%
3 of 20	15%	6	23	5	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
2 of 20	10%	5	24	5	20	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
1 of 20	5%	4	25	5	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
0 of 20	0%	3	26	5	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%

Notes
^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
Table Sorting Method
* denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
** denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
*** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs

MLS - Week 14 of 38