The Most Important Games for the Fire are those games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Fire final playoff standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Fire fans can use this table to identify the most interesting games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Fire Resultant Playoff Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |||
| Fire (5‑4‑2) vs D.C. United (4‑4‑4) |
31 | Fire Wins | 2% | 9% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 10% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| D.C. United Wins | 1% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 17% | ||
| Fire (5‑4‑2) vs CF Montréal (4‑7) |
31 | Fire Wins | 1% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 11% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| CF Montréal Wins | 1% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 19% | ||
| St. Louis City SC (2‑6‑3) vs D.C. United (4‑4‑4) |
3 | St. Louis City SC Wins | 1% | 7% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| D.C. United Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 15% | ||
| San Diego FC (3‑5‑4) vs FC Cincinnati (4‑4‑4) |
3 | San Diego FC Wins | 1% | 8% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| FC Cincinnati Wins | 1% | 7% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Orlando City SC (3‑8‑1) vs Atlanta United (3‑8‑1) |
3 | Orlando City SC Wins | 1% | 7% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 14% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Atlanta United Wins | 1% | 7% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 15% | ||
| LAFC (6‑3‑3) vs Nashville SC (7‑1‑3) |
2 | LAFC Wins | 2% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Nashville SC Wins | 1% | 8% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Red Bull (4‑5‑3) vs NY City FC (4‑5‑3) |
2 | Red Bull Wins | 1% | 7% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| NY City FC Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Toronto FC (3‑4‑5) vs Charlotte FC (4‑5‑3) |
1 | Toronto FC Wins | 1% | 7% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Charlotte FC Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Union (1‑8‑3) vs Crew (3‑6‑3) |
1 | Union Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Crew Wins | 1% | 7% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Timbers (4‑6‑1) vs Inter Miami CF (6‑2‑4) |
1 | Timbers Wins | 1% | 8% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Inter Miami CF Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Charlotte FC (4‑5‑3) vs NY City FC (4‑5‑3) |
1 | Charlotte FC Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| NY City FC Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Minnesota United (6‑3‑3) vs Revolution (7‑3‑1) |
1 | Minnesota United Wins | 1% | 8% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Revolution Wins | 1% | 7% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Red Bull (4‑5‑3) vs Crew (3‑6‑3) |
1 | Red Bull Wins | 1% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Crew Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 15% | ||
| Inter Miami CF (6‑2‑4) vs FC Cincinnati (4‑4‑4) |
1 | Inter Miami CF Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 14% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| FC Cincinnati Wins | 1% | 8% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 15% | ||
| CF Montréal (4‑7) vs Timbers (4‑6‑1) |
0 | CF Montréal Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Timbers Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Union (1‑8‑3) vs Orlando City SC (3‑8‑1) |
0 | Union Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Orlando City SC Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Revolution (7‑3‑1) vs Nashville SC (7‑1‑3) |
0 | Revolution Wins | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||
| Nashville SC Wins | 1% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 15% | ||