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Mon May 5 2:30 am

MLS - Week 12 of 35

Fire What If?

The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Fire What If?

Next Game - Atlanta United (2‑5‑4)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 4 4 4 16 <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 6% 8% 12% 64%
Current Standings 3 4 4 13 <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 8% 11% 67%
Lose Next Game 3 5 4 13 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 10% 74%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 9% 13% 62%
Current Standings <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 8% 11% 67%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 6% 9% 75%
Best Case Scenario
   Fire beats Atlanta United
   Austin FC beats FC Cincinnati
   Galaxy beats Red Bulls
 Worst Case Scenario
   Atlanta United beats Fire
   FC Cincinnati beats Austin FC
   Red Bulls beats Galaxy
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
23 of 23 100% 26 4 4 82 98% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 23 96% 25 5 4 79 94% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 23 91% 24 6 4 76 82% 17% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
20 of 23 87% 23 7 4 73 63% 33% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
19 of 23 83% 22 8 4 70 38% 46% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
18 of 23 78% 21 9 4 67 16% 41% 32% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 23 74% 20 10 4 64 4% 23% 38% 26% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 23 70% 19 11 4 61 <1% 6% 24% 36% 25% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 23 65% 18 12 4 58 <1% 1% 6% 22% 35% 26% 8% 1% <1% <1%
14 of 23 61% 17 13 4 55 <1% <1% 1% 6% 20% 34% 27% 10% 1% <1%
13 of 23 57% 16 14 4 52 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 18% 35% 29% 11% 2%
12 of 23 52% 15 15 4 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 36% 31% 11%
11 of 23 48% 14 16 4 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 19% 39% 37%
10 of 23 43% 13 17 4 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 24% 70%
9 of 23 39% 12 18 4 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 91%
5 of 23 22% 8 22 4 28 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 23 0% 3 27 4 13 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs