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Sun Mar 23 1:15 pm

MLS - Week 5 of 35

Fire What If?

The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Fire What If?

Next Game - CF Montréal (0‑4‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 4 1 1 13 11% 12% 13% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 5% 14%
Current Standings 3 1 1 10 11% 12% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 15%
Lose Next Game 3 2 1 10 8% 10% 10% 11% 10% 10% 9% 7% 7% 18%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 11% 12% 13% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 5% 14%
Current Standings 11% 12% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 15%
Worst Case Scenario 8% 10% 10% 11% 10% 10% 9% 7% 7% 18%
Best Case Scenario
   Fire beats CF Montréal
 Worst Case Scenario
   CF Montréal beats Fire
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
29 of 29 100% 32 1 1 97 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 29 90% 29 4 1 88 94% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 29 86% 28 5 1 85 84% 15% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 29 83% 27 6 1 82 71% 27% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 29 79% 26 7 1 79 51% 41% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
22 of 29 76% 25 8 1 76 33% 48% 17% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
21 of 29 72% 24 9 1 73 18% 44% 30% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
20 of 29 69% 23 10 1 70 7% 32% 40% 18% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 29 66% 22 11 1 67 2% 18% 39% 31% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 29 62% 21 12 1 64 <1% 6% 28% 39% 21% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 29 59% 20 13 1 61 <1% 2% 13% 33% 35% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 29 55% 19 14 1 58 <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 30% 11% 1% <1% <1%
15 of 29 52% 18 15 1 55 <1% <1% 1% 6% 24% 36% 25% 8% 1% <1%
14 of 29 48% 17 16 1 52 <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 27% 35% 21% 6% 1%
13 of 29 45% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 30% 35% 17% 4%
12 of 29 41% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 33% 33% 16%
11 of 29 38% 14 19 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 36% 42%
10 of 29 34% 13 20 1 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 22% 71%
9 of 29 31% 12 21 1 37 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 91%
5 of 29 17% 8 25 1 25 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 29 0% 3 30 1 10 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs