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Sun Mar 8 10:45 pm

MLS - Week 4 of 38

Fire What If?

The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Fire What If?

Next Game - D.C. United (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 2 1 1 7 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 28%
Current Standings 1 1 1 4 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 35%
Lose Next Game 1 2 1 4 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 8% 44%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 28%
Current Standings 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 35%
Worst Case Scenario 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 8% 44%
Best Case Scenario
   Fire beats D.C. United
 Worst Case Scenario
   D.C. United beats Fire
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
31 of 31 100% 32 1 1 97 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 31 97% 31 2 1 94 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 31 81% 26 7 1 79 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
20 of 31 65% 21 12 1 64 92% 8% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 31 61% 20 13 1 61 76% 22% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 31 58% 19 14 1 58 47% 40% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 31 55% 18 15 1 55 16% 38% 32% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 31 52% 17 16 1 52 1% 11% 28% 32% 20% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 31 48% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% 3% 14% 27% 30% 18% 6% 1% <1%
14 of 31 45% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 24% 31% 21% 11%
13 of 31 42% 14 19 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 20% 71%
10 of 31 32% 11 22 1 34 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 31 16% 6 27 1 19 X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 31 0% 1 32 1 4 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs