The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
Win Next Game | 9 | 9 | 4 | 31 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 30% |
Current Standings | 8 | 9 | 4 | 28 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% |
Lose Next Game | 8 | 10 | 4 | 28 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 14% | 18% | 48% |
Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
Best Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 14% | 18% | 18% | 16% | 21% |
Current Standings | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% |
Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 61% |
Best Case Scenario Fire beats Atlanta United Fire beats CF Montréal Sporting KC beats NY City FC |
Worst Case Scenario Atlanta United beats Fire CF Montréal beats Fire NY City FC beats Sporting KC |
Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | ||
13 of 13 | 100% | 21 | 9 | 4 | 67 | 41% | 43% | 14% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
12 of 13 | 92% | 20 | 10 | 4 | 64 | 11% | 36% | 38% | 14% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
11 of 13 | 85% | 19 | 11 | 4 | 61 | 1% | 10% | 31% | 39% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
10 of 13 | 77% | 18 | 12 | 4 | 58 | <1% | 1% | 7% | 28% | 42% | 21% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
9 of 13 | 69% | 17 | 13 | 4 | 55 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 25% | 45% | 22% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
8 of 13 | 62% | 16 | 14 | 4 | 52 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 25% | 43% | 24% | 5% | <1% |
7 of 13 | 54% | 15 | 15 | 4 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 21% | 40% | 28% | 7% |
6 of 13 | 46% | 14 | 16 | 4 | 46 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 17% | 39% | 40% |
5 of 13 | 38% | 13 | 17 | 4 | 43 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 16% | 82% |
4 of 13 | 31% | 12 | 18 | 4 | 40 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 98% |
3 of 13 | 23% | 11 | 19 | 4 | 37 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
2 of 13 | 15% | 10 | 20 | 4 | 34 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
1 of 13 | 8% | 9 | 21 | 4 | 31 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
0 of 13 | 0% | 8 | 22 | 4 | 28 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |