The Most Important Games for the Air Force Falcons are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Falcons final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Air Force Falcons fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||
| San José State (6‑4) vs UNLV (8‑2) |
0 | San José State Wins | X | X | X | X | 2% | 3% | 9% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 28% | 36% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | 3% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 27% | 35% | ||
| UNLV Wins | X | X | X | X | 3% | 2% | 6% | 7% | 13% | 7% | 28% | 35% | ||
| Utah St. (3‑7) vs San Diego State (3‑7) |
0 | Utah St. Wins | X | X | X | X | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 16% | 9% | 25% | 34% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | 3% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 27% | 35% | ||
| San Diego State Wins | X | X | X | X | 6% | 2% | 9% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 32% | 36% | ||
| Wyoming (2‑8) vs Boise State (9‑1) |
0 | Wyoming Wins | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | <1% | 7% | 13% | 23% | 20% | 34% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | 3% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 27% | 35% | ||
| Boise State Wins | X | X | X | X | 3% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 13% | 6% | 28% | 35% | ||
| Fresno State (5‑5) vs Colorado St. (7‑3) |
0 | Fresno State Wins | X | X | X | X | X | 1% | 11% | 5% | 13% | 7% | 27% | 35% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | 3% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 27% | 35% | ||
| Colorado St. Wins | X | X | X | X | 4% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 28% | 35% | ||
| Air Force (3‑7) vs Nevada (3‑8) |
0 | Air Force Wins | X | X | X | X | 5% | 5% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 6% | 41% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | 3% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 7% | 27% | 35% | ||
| Nevada Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 11% | 9% | 21% | 59% | ||