The Most Important Games for the Air Force Falcons are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Falcons final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Air Force Falcons fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||
| Colorado St. (1‑4) vs Fresno State (5‑1) |
0 | Colorado St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 16% | 24% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 28% | ||
| Fresno State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 28% | ||
| Nevada (1‑4) vs San Diego State (4‑1) |
0 | Nevada Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 34% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 28% | ||
| San Diego State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 22% | 27% | ||
| Air Force (1‑4) vs UNLV (5‑0) |
0 | Air Force Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 15% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 28% | ||
| UNLV Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 19% | 23% | 29% | ||
| San José State (2‑3) vs Wyoming (2‑3) |
0 | San José State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 21% | 29% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 28% | ||
| Wyoming Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 17% | 22% | 29% | ||
| Boise State (3‑2) vs New Mexico (3‑2) |
0 | Boise State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 22% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 28% | ||
| New Mexico Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 18% | 23% | 28% | ||
| Hawaii (4‑2) vs Utah St. (3‑2) |
0 | Hawaii Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 17% | 23% | 28% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 28% | ||
| Utah St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 21% | 29% | ||