The Air Force Falcons What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Air Force plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 15% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 28% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 19% | 23% | 29% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Current Standings | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 18% | 22% | 28% |
|
Best Case Scenario None |
Worst Case Scenario None |
|||||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 5 of 5 | 100% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 2% | 13% | 34% | 35% | 14% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 | 4 | X | X | <1% | 2% | 13% | 33% | 34% | 15% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 12% | 31% | 37% | 17% | 2% | <1% |
| 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 13% | 39% | 37% | 9% |
| 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 7% | 38% | 55% |
| 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 8% | 92% |