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Sat Nov 23 1:00 am

NBA - Week 5 of 25

Thunder What If?

The Thunder What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Thunder play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Thunder What If?

Next Game - Kings (8‑8)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in
 8**
Play-in
 9**
Play-in
 10**
Play-in
 11
Win Next Game 13 4 22% 17% 11% 9% 8% 8% 7% 5% 4% 4% 4%
Current Standings 12 4 21% 16% 11% 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5%
Lose Next Game 12 5 20% 16% 11% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 4% 5%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in
 8**
Play-in
 9**
Play-in
 10**
Play-in
 11
Best Case Scenario 22% 17% 12% 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 4%
Current Standings 21% 16% 11% 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5%
Worst Case Scenario 22% 15% 12% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5%
Best Case Scenario
   Warriors beats Spurs
   Celtics beats Timberwolves
   Sixers beats Clippers
 Worst Case Scenario
   Spurs beats Warriors
   Timberwolves beats Celtics
   Clippers beats Sixers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in
 8**
Play-in
 9**
Play-in
 10**
Play-in
 11
64 of 64 100% 76 4 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
60 of 64 94% 72 8 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
53 of 64 83% 65 15 95% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
52 of 64 81% 64 16 92% 8% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
51 of 64 80% 63 17 89% 11% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
50 of 64 78% 62 18 84% 16% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
49 of 64 77% 61 19 78% 22% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
48 of 64 75% 60 20 71% 28% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
47 of 64 73% 59 21 62% 35% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
46 of 64 72% 58 22 53% 40% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
45 of 64 70% 57 23 43% 44% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
44 of 64 69% 56 24 33% 46% 19% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
43 of 64 67% 55 25 23% 44% 26% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
42 of 64 66% 54 26 15% 40% 32% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
41 of 64 64% 53 27 9% 33% 36% 18% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
40 of 64 63% 52 28 5% 24% 37% 25% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
39 of 64 61% 51 29 3% 17% 34% 30% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
38 of 64 59% 50 30 1% 10% 28% 33% 21% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
37 of 64 58% 49 31 <1% 6% 20% 32% 27% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
36 of 64 56% 48 32 <1% 3% 13% 28% 30% 18% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1%
35 of 64 55% 47 33 <1% 1% 8% 21% 31% 25% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1%
34 of 64 53% 46 34 <1% <1% 4% 14% 27% 29% 18% 6% 1% <1% <1%
33 of 64 52% 45 35 <1% <1% 2% 8% 22% 30% 24% 10% 3% <1% <1%
32 of 64 50% 44 36 <1% <1% 1% 4% 15% 28% 29% 17% 5% 1% <1%
31 of 64 48% 43 37 <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 22% 30% 22% 11% 3% <1%
30 of 64 47% 42 38 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 15% 27% 28% 16% 5% 1%
29 of 64 45% 41 39 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 22% 29% 24% 10% 3%
28 of 64 44% 40 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 14% 28% 29% 17% 6%
27 of 64 42% 39 41 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 22% 29% 24% 13%
26 of 64 41% 38 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 15% 27% 30% 23%
25 of 64 39% 37 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 22% 31% 36%
24 of 64 38% 36 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 16% 29% 50%
23 of 64 36% 35 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 23% 66%
22 of 64 34% 34 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 15% 79%
21 of 64 33% 33 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 88%
20 of 64 31% 32 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 94%
10 of 64 16% 22 58 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 64 0% 12 68 X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • ** denotes Play-in Tournament Participant