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Mon Oct 12 12:00 am

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Bears What If?

The Bears What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bears play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bears What If?

Next Game - Falcons (2‑3)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 2 0 4% 6% 2% <1% 16% 15% 12% 44%
Current Standings 3 2 0 3% 6% 2% 1% 15% 14% 11% 49%
Lose Next Game 3 3 0 1% 4% 2% 1% 12% 13% 12% 56%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 6% 5% 1% <1% 18% 15% 12% 42%
Current Standings 3% 6% 2% 1% 15% 14% 11% 49%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 4% 2% 1% 12% 13% 12% 56%
Best Case Scenario
   Bears beats Falcons
   Saints beats Giants
   Commanders beats Forty-Niners
 Worst Case Scenario
   Falcons beats Bears
   Giants beats Saints
   Forty-Niners beats Commanders
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
12 of 12 100% 15 2 0 56% 28% <1% <1% 15% <1% ^ ^
11 of 12 92% 14 3 0 29% 36% 3% <1% 32% 1% <1% ^
10 of 12 83% 13 4 0 9% 27% 7% <1% 48% 8% <1% <1%
9 of 12 75% 12 5 0 1% 11% 8% 1% 48% 26% 4% <1%
8 of 12 67% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 4% 2% 27% 42% 21% 4%
7 of 12 58% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 1% 1% 7% 28% 40% 24%
6 of 12 50% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 24% 68%
5 of 12 42% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 96%
4 of 12 33% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 12 25% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 12 17% 5 12 0 X X X X X X <1% >99%
1 of 12 8% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 12 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs