The Commanders What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Commanders play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2% | 19% | 2% | <1% | 11% | 29% | 25% | 11% |
| Current Standings | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2% | 17% | 2% | <1% | 10% | 27% | 25% | 17% |
| Lose Next Game | 7 | 5 | 0 | <1% | 6% | 2% | <1% | 6% | 24% | 33% | 29% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 3% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 26% | 23% | 12% |
| Current Standings | 2% | 17% | 2% | <1% | 10% | 27% | 25% | 17% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 5% | 1% | <1% | 6% | 26% | 35% | 28% |
|
Best Case Scenario Colts beats Lions Commanders beats Cowboys Rams beats Eagles |
Worst Case Scenario Lions beats Colts Cowboys beats Commanders Eagles beats Rams |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 6 of 6 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 11% | 69% | X | X | 15% | 4% | <1% | ^ |
| 5 of 6 | 83% | 12 | 5 | 0 | <1% | 33% | 3% | <1% | 24% | 35% | 5% | ^ |
| 4 of 6 | 67% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 8% | 47% | 33% | 1% |
| 3 of 6 | 50% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 21% | 61% | 14% |
| 2 of 6 | 33% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 30% | 68% |
| 1 of 6 | 17% | 8 | 9 | 0 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 98% |
| 0 of 6 | 0% | 7 | 10 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |