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Wed Nov 20 9:15 am

UEFA Champions League - Week 9 of 20

Barcelona What If?

The Barcelona What If table presents qualifing probabilities depended upon how Barcelona plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Barcelona What If?

Next Game - Brest (3‑0‑1)

  Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Win Next Game 4 1 0 12 8% 12% 12% 10% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 3 1 0 9 6% 11% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 3 2 0 9 <1% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Qualifing Finish Elimination
  1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Best Case Scenario 7% 13% 13% 12% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 6% 11% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4%
Best Case Scenario
   Sparta Prague beats Atletico Madrid
   Barcelona beats Brest
   Young Boys beats Atalanta
Worst Case Scenario
   Atletico Madrid beats Sparta Prague
   Brest beats Barcelona
   Atalanta beats Young Boys
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the qualifing probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
4 of 4 100% 7 1 0 21 59% 37% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 4 75% 6 2 0 18 4% 24% 39% 24% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 of 4 50% 5 3 0 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 8% 17% 24% 23% 15% 7% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
1 of 4 25% 4 4 0 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 9% 18% 23% 23% 14% 7% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
0 of 4 0% 3 5 0 9 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 14% 26% 53%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this qualifing spot
  • X means the team cannot win this qualifing spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the knockout round