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Wed Nov 20 9:15 am

UEFA Champions League - Week 9 of 20

Benfica What If?

The Benfica What If table presents qualifing probabilities depended upon how Benfica plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Benfica What If?

Next Game - Monaco (3‑0‑1)

  Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Win Next Game 3 2 0 9 <1% 1% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2%
Current Standings 2 2 0 6 <1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 9%
Lose Next Game 2 3 0 6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 6% 7% 7% 22%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Qualifing Finish Elimination
  1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2%
Current Standings <1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 9%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 6% 7% 7% 22%
Best Case Scenario
   Benfica beats Monaco
Worst Case Scenario
   Monaco beats Benfica
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the qualifing probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
4 of 4 100% 6 2 0 18 2% 13% 31% 32% 17% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 4 75% 5 3 0 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 10% 18% 24% 22% 13% 6% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
2 of 4 50% 4 4 0 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 6% 14% 21% 22% 19% 10% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1%
1 of 4 25% 3 5 0 9 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 10% 21% 66%
0 of 4 0% 2 6 0 6 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this qualifing spot
  • X means the team cannot win this qualifing spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the knockout round