The Chiefs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chiefs play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 11 | 1 | 0 | 67% | 23% | 4% | <1% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 10 | 1 | 0 | 66% | 24% | 4% | <1% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 10 | 2 | 0 | 40% | 37% | 10% | 1% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 83% | 11% | 3% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 66% | 24% | 4% | <1% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 36% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 14% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Chiefs beats Raiders Falcons beats Chargers Forty-Niners beats Bills |
Worst Case Scenario Raiders beats Chiefs Chargers beats Falcons Bills beats Forty-Niners |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 6 of 6 | 100% | 16 | 1 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 6 | 83% | 15 | 2 | 0 | 85% | 15% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 6 | 67% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 45% | 50% | 2% | X | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 6 | 50% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 11% | 59% | 15% | X | 15% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 6 | 33% | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1% | 20% | 30% | 4% | 43% | 3% | <1% | ^ |
| 1 of 6 | 17% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 7% | 51% | 25% | 6% | <1% |
| 0 of 6 | 0% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 15% | 42% | 36% | 6% |