The Chiefs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chiefs play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 9 | 0 | 0 | 81% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 8 | 0 | 0 | 79% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 8 | 1 | 0 | 66% | 18% | 6% | 1% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 88% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 79% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 61% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Chiefs beats Broncos Colts beats Bills Commanders beats Steelers |
Worst Case Scenario Broncos beats Chiefs Bills beats Colts Steelers beats Commanders |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 9 of 9 | 100% | 17 | 0 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 9 | 89% | 16 | 1 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 9 | 78% | 15 | 2 | 0 | 97% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 9 | 67% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 80% | 17% | 1% | <1% | 2% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 9 | 56% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 40% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 10% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 4 of 9 | 44% | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7% | 26% | 27% | 8% | 29% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 of 9 | 33% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 3% | 15% | 16% | 40% | 21% | 3% | <1% |
| 2 of 9 | 22% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 10% | 19% | 37% | 26% | 6% |
| 1 of 9 | 11% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 16% | 39% | 41% |
| 0 of 9 | 0% | 8 | 9 | 0 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 12% | 87% |