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Thu Oct 29 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 8 of 18

Chiefs What If?

The Chiefs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chiefs play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Chiefs What If?

Next Game - Broncos (5‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 6 1 0 32% 18% 16% 9% 7% 6% 5% 7%
Current Standings 5 1 0 24% 14% 12% 6% 13% 10% 8% 14%
Lose Next Game 5 2 0 15% 12% 11% 6% 18% 12% 10% 17%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 34% 20% 16% 6% 7% 6% 4% 7%
Current Standings 24% 14% 12% 6% 13% 10% 8% 14%
Worst Case Scenario 15% 11% 11% 7% 18% 12% 10% 17%
Best Case Scenario
   Colts beats Jaguars
   Chiefs beats Broncos
   Dolphins beats Patriots
 Worst Case Scenario
   Jaguars beats Colts
   Broncos beats Chiefs
   Patriots beats Dolphins
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
11 of 11 100% 16 1 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 11 91% 15 2 0 98% 1% X X <1% ^ ^ ^
9 of 11 82% 14 3 0 78% 18% 1% <1% 2% <1% ^ ^
8 of 11 73% 13 4 0 34% 39% 13% 1% 12% <1% <1% <1%
7 of 11 64% 12 5 0 6% 27% 28% 8% 26% 5% <1% <1%
6 of 11 55% 11 6 0 <1% 8% 23% 15% 24% 23% 6% 1%
5 of 11 45% 10 7 0 <1% 1% 9% 14% 10% 29% 27% 11%
4 of 11 36% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 8% 1% 10% 30% 49%
3 of 11 27% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% 1% 8% 89%
2 of 11 18% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
1 of 11 9% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 11 0% 5 12 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs