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Thu Oct 29 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 8 of 18

Colts What If?

The Colts What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Colts play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Colts What If?

Next Game - Jaguars (4‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 5 0 <1% <1% 2% 15% <1% 1% 3% 78%
Current Standings 2 5 0 <1% <1% 1% 9% <1% 1% 2% 86%
Lose Next Game 2 6 0 <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% 1% 2% 92%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% 2% 15% <1% 1% 3% 78%
Current Standings <1% <1% 1% 9% <1% 1% 2% 86%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% 1% 2% 92%
Best Case Scenario
   Colts beats Jaguars
 Worst Case Scenario
   Jaguars beats Colts
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
10 of 10 100% 12 5 0 1% 17% 45% 32% 3% 2% <1% <1%
9 of 10 90% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 24% 51% 5% 10% 6% 1%
8 of 10 80% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 6% 48% 2% 9% 17% 18%
7 of 10 70% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 30% <1% 2% 10% 57%
6 of 10 60% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 13% <1% <1% 1% 86%
5 of 10 50% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1% 97%
4 of 10 40% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 10 30% 5 12 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 10 20% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 10 10% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 10 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs