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Fri Oct 2 12:30 am

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Colts What If?

The Colts What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Colts play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Colts What If?

Next Game - Commanders (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 2 0 1% 3% 8% 14% 2% 5% 6% 61%
Current Standings 1 2 0 <1% 3% 7% 14% 2% 4% 5% 65%
Lose Next Game 1 3 0 <1% 2% 6% 13% 2% 3% 5% 69%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 1% 3% 9% 16% 2% 4% 5% 60%
Current Standings <1% 3% 7% 14% 2% 4% 5% 65%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 2% 5% 11% 2% 4% 5% 71%
Best Case Scenario
   Colts beats Commanders
   Bengals beats Jaguars
 Worst Case Scenario
   Commanders beats Colts
   Jaguars beats Bengals
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 15 2 0 45% 47% 8% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 14 3 0 18% 52% 25% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 14 86% 13 4 0 5% 33% 42% 13% 5% 2% <1% <1%
11 of 14 79% 12 5 0 1% 11% 39% 30% 10% 8% 2% <1%
10 of 14 71% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 21% 40% 8% 17% 10% 2%
9 of 14 64% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 8% 37% 3% 14% 21% 17%
8 of 14 57% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 25% <1% 5% 16% 51%
7 of 14 50% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 13% <1% <1% 4% 83%
6 of 14 43% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 4% <1% <1% <1% 95%
5 of 14 36% 6 11 0 X X <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
4 of 14 29% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
3 of 14 21% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X X >99%
2 of 14 14% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 14 7% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs