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Thu Oct 29 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 8 of 18

Cowboys What If?

The Cowboys What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Cowboys play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Cowboys What If?

Next Game - Cardinals (2‑5)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 4 0 <1% 4% 13% 12% 1% 3% 6% 62%
Current Standings 3 4 0 <1% 3% 11% 12% 1% 3% 5% 66%
Lose Next Game 3 5 0 <1% 1% 7% 11% <1% 2% 4% 75%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% 4% 13% 12% 1% 3% 6% 62%
Current Standings <1% 3% 11% 12% 1% 3% 5% 66%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 7% 11% <1% 2% 4% 75%
Best Case Scenario
   Cowboys beats Cardinals
 Worst Case Scenario
   Cardinals beats Cowboys
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
10 of 10 100% 13 4 0 10% 68% 20% <1% 2% <1% <1% ^
9 of 10 90% 12 5 0 1% 40% 45% 3% 5% 4% 1% <1%
8 of 10 80% 11 6 0 <1% 11% 50% 14% 5% 12% 7% 1%
7 of 10 70% 10 7 0 <1% 1% 27% 27% 2% 11% 19% 14%
6 of 10 60% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 8% 25% <1% 3% 12% 52%
5 of 10 50% 8 9 0 <1% <1% 1% 12% <1% <1% 1% 86%
4 of 10 40% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% 98%
3 of 10 30% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
2 of 10 20% 5 12 0 X X X <1% X X X >99%
1 of 10 10% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 10 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs