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Mon Dec 1 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 14 of 18

Forty-Niners What If?

The Forty-Niners What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Forty-Niners play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Forty-Niners What If?

Next Game - Titans (1‑11)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 10 4 0 14% 4% 2% 1% 37% 24% 13% 5%
Current Standings 9 4 0 13% 4% 2% <1% 35% 25% 14% 7%
Lose Next Game 9 5 0 2% 3% 1% 1% 27% 25% 22% 19%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 24% 11% 6% 2% 26% 15% 10% 6%
Current Standings 13% 4% 2% <1% 35% 25% 14% 7%
Worst Case Scenario 11% 3% 1% <1% 36% 28% 15% 7%
Best Case Scenario
   Falcons beats Seahawks
   Cardinals beats Rams
 Worst Case Scenario
   Seahawks beats Falcons
   Rams beats Cardinals
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
4 of 4 100% 13 4 0 60% 4% X X 36% ^ ^ ^
3 of 4 75% 12 5 0 6% 9% 5% 1% 62% 16% <1% ^
2 of 4 50% 11 6 0 <1% 1% 1% 1% 25% 50% 21% 2%
1 of 4 25% 10 7 0 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 16% 50% 33%
0 of 4 0% 9 8 0 X X X X <1% 1% 15% 84%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs