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Thu Sep 11 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 2 of 18

Patriots What If?

The Patriots What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Patriots play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Patriots What If?

Next Game - Dolphins (0‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 1 1 0 1% 4% 6% 9% 4% 6% 6% 65%
Current Standings 0 1 0 1% 3% 5% 7% 3% 5% 6% 69%
Lose Next Game 0 2 0 <1% 2% 4% 7% 3% 5% 6% 74%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 2% 4% 7% 11% 3% 5% 5% 64%
Current Standings 1% 3% 5% 7% 3% 5% 6% 69%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 2% 4% 6% 2% 5% 5% 74%
Best Case Scenario
   Patriots beats Dolphins
   Jets beats Bills
   Colts beats Broncos
 Worst Case Scenario
   Dolphins beats Patriots
   Bills beats Jets
   Broncos beats Colts
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
16 of 16 100% 16 1 0 78% 21% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 16 94% 15 2 0 49% 44% 7% <1% 1% <1% ^ ^
14 of 16 88% 14 3 0 19% 49% 23% 3% 5% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 16 81% 13 4 0 5% 29% 37% 12% 13% 4% <1% <1%
12 of 16 75% 12 5 0 <1% 10% 30% 24% 18% 15% 3% <1%
11 of 16 69% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 14% 28% 11% 25% 16% 5%
10 of 16 63% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 4% 21% 4% 18% 28% 26%
9 of 16 56% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 12% 1% 6% 18% 63%
8 of 16 50% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% 1% 5% 90%
7 of 16 44% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 98%
6 of 16 38% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 16 31% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 16 25% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
3 of 16 19% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 16 13% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 16 6% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 16 0% 0 17 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs