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Tue Oct 14 12:30 am

NFL - Week 7 of 18

Patriots What If?

The Patriots What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Patriots play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Patriots What If?

Next Game - Titans (1‑5)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 5 2 0 12% 19% 19% 19% 7% 7% 5% 12%
Current Standings 4 2 0 10% 17% 19% 21% 5% 6% 5% 17%
Lose Next Game 4 3 0 4% 12% 19% 26% 5% 7% 6% 21%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 14% 19% 19% 18% 7% 6% 5% 12%
Current Standings 10% 17% 19% 21% 5% 6% 5% 17%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 12% 19% 27% 5% 7% 6% 21%
Best Case Scenario
   Bengals beats Steelers
   Patriots beats Titans
 Worst Case Scenario
   Steelers beats Bengals
   Titans beats Patriots
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
11 of 11 100% 15 2 0 70% 28% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 11 91% 14 3 0 36% 49% 13% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 11 82% 13 4 0 11% 41% 35% 7% 4% <1% <1% ^
8 of 11 73% 12 5 0 2% 19% 41% 24% 10% 4% <1% <1%
7 of 11 64% 11 6 0 <1% 4% 27% 40% 11% 14% 3% <1%
6 of 11 55% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 9% 44% 5% 19% 16% 6%
5 of 11 45% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 33% 1% 9% 22% 34%
4 of 11 36% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 17% <1% 1% 6% 76%
3 of 11 27% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% 6% <1% <1% <1% 94%
2 of 11 18% 6 11 0 X X <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
1 of 11 9% 5 12 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
0 of 11 0% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs