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Sun Jan 12 11:45 am

Coastal Basketball - Week 10 of 17

William & Mary What If?

The William & Mary Tribe What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how William & Mary plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

William & Mary What If?

Next Game - Hampton (9‑8)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
Win Next Game 5 0 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 4 0 10% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 2% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 4 1 7% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 5% 3% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
Best Case Scenario 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 7% 6% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 10% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 2% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 7% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 3% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Stony Brook beats Delaware
   William & Mary beats Hampton
   N. Carolina A&T beats Monmouth
 Worst Case Scenario
   Delaware beats Stony Brook
   Hampton beats William & Mary
   Monmouth beats N. Carolina A&T
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
14 of 14 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 17 1 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 14 86% 16 2 97% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 14 79% 15 3 83% 16% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 14 71% 14 4 53% 40% 7% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 14 64% 13 5 19% 45% 29% 6% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 14 57% 12 6 2% 18% 38% 31% 10% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 14 50% 11 7 <1% 2% 11% 29% 35% 19% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 14 43% 10 8 <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 30% 11% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
5 of 14 36% 9 9 X X <1% <1% 1% 8% 26% 36% 22% 6% 1% <1% ^ ^
4 of 14 29% 8 10 X X X <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 34% 33% 12% 2% <1% <1%
3 of 14 21% 7 11 X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 10% 32% 39% 16% 1% <1%
2 of 14 14% 6 12 X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 9% 37% 46% 8% <1%
1 of 14 7% 5 13 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 13% 59% 26% 2%
0 of 14 0% 4 14 X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 41% 50% 8%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament