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Sun Sep 14 3:30 pm

English Premier League - Week 6 of 41

Chelsea What If?

The Chelsea What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Chelsea What If?

Next Game - Manchester United (1‑2‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 3 0 2 11 11% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 2 0 2 8 10% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1%
Lose Next Game 2 1 2 8 8% 12% 14% 13% 11% 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 13% 14% 14% 13% 10% 8% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 10% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1%
Worst Case Scenario 8% 12% 13% 13% 11% 10% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Everton beats Liverpool
   Brighton beats Tottenham Hotspur
   Chelsea beats Manchester United
 Worst Case Scenario
   Liverpool beats Everton
   Tottenham Hotspur beats Brighton
   Manchester United beats Chelsea
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
34 of 34 100% 36 0 2 110 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
32 of 34 94% 34 2 2 104 95% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
31 of 34 91% 33 3 2 101 86% 14% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 34 88% 32 4 2 98 71% 27% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
29 of 34 85% 31 5 2 95 53% 41% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 34 82% 30 6 2 92 35% 48% 16% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 34 79% 29 7 2 89 21% 47% 28% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 34 76% 28 8 2 86 11% 39% 38% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 34 74% 27 9 2 83 4% 27% 42% 22% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 34 71% 26 10 2 80 2% 15% 37% 34% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 34 68% 25 11 2 77 1% 7% 27% 39% 22% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 34 65% 24 12 2 74 <1% 2% 15% 35% 33% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 34 62% 23 13 2 71 <1% 1% 6% 24% 37% 25% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 34 59% 22 14 2 68 <1% <1% 2% 12% 30% 34% 18% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
19 of 34 56% 21 15 2 65 <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 33% 30% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
18 of 34 53% 20 16 2 62 <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 22% 35% 25% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
17 of 34 50% 19 17 2 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 26% 34% 21% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 34 47% 18 18 2 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 12% 28% 33% 18% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 34 44% 17 19 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 14% 29% 32% 16% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 34 41% 16 20 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 15% 30% 31% 16% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 34 38% 15 21 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 15% 30% 31% 15% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 34 35% 14 22 2 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 30% 31% 16% 4% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 34 32% 13 23 2 41 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 14% 29% 32% 17% 4% <1% <1%
10 of 34 29% 12 24 2 38 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 13% 30% 33% 17% 4% <1%
9 of 34 26% 11 25 2 35 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 30% 34% 17% 4%
8 of 34 24% 10 26 2 32 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 32% 34% 19%
7 of 34 21% 9 27 2 29 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 15% 35% 48%
6 of 34 18% 8 28 2 26 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 19% 78%
5 of 34 15% 7 29 2 23 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 94%
0 of 34 0% 2 34 2 8 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes EPL Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ***denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League