The Orioles What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Orioles play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Win Next Game | 7 | 8 | 4% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 62% |
| Current Standings | 6 | 8 | 4% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 63% |
| Lose Next Game | 6 | 9 | 3% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 64% |
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Orioles Sweeps | 7 | 8 | 4% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 62% |
| Current Standings | 6 | 8 | 4% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 63% |
| Blue Jays Sweeps | 6 | 9 | 3% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 64% |
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 148 of 148 | 100% | 154 | 8 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 140 of 148 | 95% | 146 | 16 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 130 of 148 | 88% | 136 | 26 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 120 of 148 | 81% | 126 | 36 | 98% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 117 of 148 | 79% | 123 | 39 | 94% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 116 of 148 | 78% | 122 | 40 | 93% | 7% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 115 of 148 | 78% | 121 | 41 | 91% | 9% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 114 of 148 | 77% | 120 | 42 | 89% | 10% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 113 of 148 | 76% | 119 | 43 | 85% | 13% | 1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 112 of 148 | 76% | 118 | 44 | 81% | 16% | 1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 111 of 148 | 75% | 117 | 45 | 77% | 19% | 1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 110 of 148 | 74% | 116 | 46 | 72% | 22% | 2% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 109 of 148 | 74% | 115 | 47 | 66% | 26% | 2% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 108 of 148 | 73% | 114 | 48 | 60% | 29% | 3% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 107 of 148 | 72% | 113 | 49 | 55% | 32% | 4% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 106 of 148 | 72% | 112 | 50 | 49% | 34% | 5% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 105 of 148 | 71% | 111 | 51 | 43% | 36% | 7% | 13% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 104 of 148 | 70% | 110 | 52 | 37% | 38% | 9% | 16% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 103 of 148 | 70% | 109 | 53 | 31% | 39% | 10% | 18% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 102 of 148 | 69% | 108 | 54 | 26% | 39% | 12% | 20% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 101 of 148 | 68% | 107 | 55 | 21% | 38% | 14% | 23% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 100 of 148 | 68% | 106 | 56 | 17% | 37% | 17% | 25% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 99 of 148 | 67% | 105 | 57 | 14% | 34% | 18% | 26% | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 98 of 148 | 66% | 104 | 58 | 11% | 32% | 19% | 28% | 9% | 1% | <1% |
| 97 of 148 | 66% | 103 | 59 | 8% | 29% | 22% | 28% | 12% | 2% | <1% |
| 96 of 148 | 65% | 102 | 60 | 5% | 25% | 23% | 29% | 15% | 3% | <1% |
| 95 of 148 | 64% | 101 | 61 | 4% | 23% | 23% | 29% | 18% | 3% | <1% |
| 94 of 148 | 64% | 100 | 62 | 3% | 19% | 23% | 28% | 21% | 5% | 1% |
| 93 of 148 | 63% | 99 | 63 | 2% | 16% | 24% | 27% | 24% | 7% | 1% |
| 92 of 148 | 62% | 98 | 64 | 1% | 13% | 23% | 25% | 26% | 9% | 2% |
| 91 of 148 | 61% | 97 | 65 | 1% | 11% | 23% | 23% | 28% | 13% | 3% |
| 90 of 148 | 61% | 96 | 66 | <1% | 8% | 21% | 20% | 30% | 16% | 4% |
| 89 of 148 | 60% | 95 | 67 | <1% | 6% | 21% | 18% | 30% | 19% | 6% |
| 88 of 148 | 59% | 94 | 68 | <1% | 5% | 19% | 15% | 29% | 22% | 9% |
| 87 of 148 | 59% | 93 | 69 | <1% | 4% | 18% | 12% | 29% | 25% | 12% |
| 86 of 148 | 58% | 92 | 70 | <1% | 3% | 17% | 9% | 27% | 28% | 16% |
| 85 of 148 | 57% | 91 | 71 | <1% | 2% | 16% | 8% | 24% | 29% | 21% |
| 84 of 148 | 57% | 90 | 72 | <1% | 1% | 14% | 6% | 22% | 30% | 26% |
| 83 of 148 | 56% | 89 | 73 | <1% | 1% | 12% | 4% | 19% | 30% | 33% |
| 82 of 148 | 55% | 88 | 74 | <1% | 1% | 11% | 3% | 16% | 30% | 40% |
| 81 of 148 | 55% | 87 | 75 | <1% | <1% | 10% | 2% | 13% | 28% | 47% |
| 80 of 148 | 54% | 86 | 76 | <1% | <1% | 8% | 2% | 10% | 25% | 55% |
| 79 of 148 | 53% | 85 | 77 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 1% | 8% | 22% | 61% |
| 78 of 148 | 53% | 84 | 78 | <1% | <1% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 19% | 68% |
| 77 of 148 | 52% | 83 | 79 | <1% | <1% | 5% | <1% | 4% | 16% | 74% |
| 76 of 148 | 51% | 82 | 80 | <1% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 3% | 13% | 79% |
| 75 of 148 | 51% | 81 | 81 | <1% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 2% | 10% | 84% |
| 74 of 148 | 50% | 80 | 82 | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 8% | 87% |
| 73 of 148 | 49% | 79 | 83 | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 90% |
| 72 of 148 | 49% | 78 | 84 | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 93% |
| 70 of 148 | 47% | 76 | 86 | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 96% |
| 60 of 148 | 41% | 66 | 96 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 50 of 148 | 34% | 56 | 106 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 40 of 148 | 27% | 46 | 116 | X | <1% | <1% | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 30 of 148 | 20% | 36 | 126 | X | X | <1% | X | X | X | >99% |
| 20 of 148 | 14% | 26 | 136 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 10 of 148 | 7% | 16 | 146 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 148 | 0% | 6 | 156 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |