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Sun Mar 15 9:30 pm

MLS - Week 5 of 38

Crew What If?

The Crew What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Crew play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Crew What If?

Next Game - Toronto FC (1‑2‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 1 2 2 5 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 46%
Current Standings 0 2 2 2 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 56%
Lose Next Game 0 3 2 2 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 62%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 46%
Current Standings 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 56%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 62%
Best Case Scenario
   Crew beats Toronto FC
 Worst Case Scenario
   Toronto FC beats Crew
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
30 of 30 100% 30 2 2 92 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 30 83% 25 7 2 77 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
21 of 30 70% 21 11 2 65 94% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 30 67% 20 12 2 62 82% 17% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 30 63% 19 13 2 59 58% 35% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 30 60% 18 14 2 56 24% 43% 25% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 30 57% 17 15 2 53 4% 19% 35% 28% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 30 53% 16 16 2 50 <1% 1% 8% 23% 31% 24% 10% 2% <1% <1%
15 of 30 50% 15 17 2 47 <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 19% 30% 25% 12% 4%
14 of 30 47% 14 18 2 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 15% 28% 51%
10 of 30 33% 10 22 2 32 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 30 17% 5 27 2 17 X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 30 0% 0 32 2 2 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs