The Earthquakes What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Earthquakes play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
Win Next Game | 10 | 11 | 8 | 38 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 28% | 26% | 20% | 14% | 10% |
Current Standings | 9 | 11 | 8 | 35 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 25% |
Lose Next Game | 9 | 12 | 8 | 35 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 7% | 14% | 19% | 23% | 37% |
Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
Best Case Scenario | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 32% | 27% | 19% | 12% | 8% |
Current Standings | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 25% |
Worst Case Scenario | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 48% |
Best Case Scenario Earthquakes beats Austin FC Sporting KC beats Rapids Sounders beats Real Salt Lake |
Worst Case Scenario Austin FC beats Earthquakes Rapids beats Sporting KC Real Salt Lake beats Sounders |
Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | ||
6 of 6 | 100% | 15 | 11 | 8 | 53 | X | <1% | <1% | 10% | 41% | 47% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
5 of 6 | 83% | 14 | 12 | 8 | 50 | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 13% | 75% | 11% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
4 of 6 | 67% | 13 | 13 | 8 | 47 | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 47% | 40% | 11% | 1% | <1% |
3 of 6 | 50% | 12 | 14 | 8 | 44 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 7% | 28% | 41% | 21% | 3% |
2 of 6 | 33% | 11 | 15 | 8 | 41 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 13% | 41% | 44% |
1 of 6 | 17% | 10 | 16 | 8 | 38 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 94% |
0 of 6 | 0% | 9 | 17 | 8 | 35 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |