San Jose Earthquakes What If?

	Resultant Record				Conference Playoff Spots									No Playoffs No POs
	W	L	T	Pts	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^** First Round Bye	7^** First Round Bye	8^*** First Round Home Field Advantage	9	10
Win Next Game	11	5	3	36	8%	26%	24%	16%	10%	6%	4%	3%	2%	1%
Current Standings	10	5	3	33	7%	23%	23%	15%	11%	7%	5%	4%	2%	3%
Lose Next Game	10	6	3	33	4%	18%	21%	16%	12%	10%	7%	5%	4%	4%

	Conference Playoff Spots									No Playoffs No POs
	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^** First Round Bye	7^** First Round Bye	8^*** First Round Home Field Advantage	9	10
Best Case Scenario	9%	27%	25%	15%	9%	6%	4%	2%	1%	1%
Current Standings	7%	23%	23%	15%	11%	7%	5%	4%	2%	3%
Worst Case Scenario	4%	17%	20%	17%	13%	9%	7%	5%	4%	5%
Best Case Scenario Austin FC beats FC Dallas Earthquakes beats St. Louis City SC					Worst Case Scenario FC Dallas beats Austin FC St. Louis City SC beats Earthquakes

Notes
Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three

Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	Resultant Record				Conference Playoff Spots									No Playoffs No POs
Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	W	L	T	Pts	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^** First Round Bye	7^** First Round Bye	8^*** First Round Home Field Advantage	9	10
16 of 16	100%	26	5	3	81	98%	2%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
15 of 16	94%	25	6	3	78	91%	9%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
14 of 16	88%	24	7	3	75	77%	23%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^
13 of 16	81%	23	8	3	72	57%	42%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^	^
12 of 16	75%	22	9	3	69	36%	59%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^
11 of 16	69%	21	10	3	66	16%	65%	19%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	^
10 of 16	63%	20	11	3	63	5%	47%	41%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
9 of 16	56%	19	12	3	60	1%	21%	51%	24%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
8 of 16	50%	18	13	3	57	<1%	4%	28%	42%	22%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
7 of 16	44%	17	14	3	54	<1%	<1%	5%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%	<1%	<1%
6 of 16	38%	16	15	3	51	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	14%	32%	32%	15%	4%	<1%
5 of 16	31%	15	16	3	48	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	11%
4 of 16	25%	14	17	3	45	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	10%	28%	60%
3 of 16	19%	13	18	3	42	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	4%	95%
2 of 16	13%	12	19	3	39	X	X	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
1 of 16	6%	11	20	3	36	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
0 of 16	0%	10	21	3	33	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%

Notes
^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
Table Sorting Method
* denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
** denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
*** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs

MLS - Week 26 of 38