The Earthquakes What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Earthquakes play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
Win Next Game | 8 | 8 | 7 | 31 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 16% |
Current Standings | 7 | 8 | 7 | 28 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 24% |
Lose Next Game | 7 | 9 | 7 | 28 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 34% |
Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
Best Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 23% | 20% | 14% | 9% | 7% |
Current Standings | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 24% |
Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 9% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 43% |
Best Case Scenario Earthquakes beats FC Dallas Union beats Dynamo Earthquakes beats Sounders |
Worst Case Scenario FC Dallas beats Earthquakes Dynamo beats Union Sounders beats Earthquakes |
Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | ||
12 of 12 | 100% | 19 | 8 | 7 | 64 | 46% | 43% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
11 of 12 | 92% | 18 | 9 | 7 | 61 | 14% | 42% | 35% | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
10 of 12 | 83% | 17 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 1% | 14% | 38% | 34% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
9 of 12 | 75% | 16 | 11 | 7 | 55 | <1% | 1% | 12% | 36% | 38% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
8 of 12 | 67% | 15 | 12 | 7 | 52 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 11% | 39% | 40% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
7 of 12 | 58% | 14 | 13 | 7 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 12% | 45% | 34% | 8% | <1% | <1% |
6 of 12 | 50% | 13 | 14 | 7 | 46 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 15% | 41% | 33% | 9% | 1% |
5 of 12 | 42% | 12 | 15 | 7 | 43 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 12% | 35% | 35% | 17% |
4 of 12 | 33% | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 24% | 69% |
3 of 12 | 25% | 10 | 17 | 7 | 37 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 98% |
2 of 12 | 17% | 9 | 18 | 7 | 34 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
1 of 12 | 8% | 8 | 19 | 7 | 31 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
0 of 12 | 0% | 7 | 20 | 7 | 28 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |