PlayoffStatus.com

Mon Mar 9 2:30 am

MLS - Week 3 of 32

Earthquakes What If?

The Earthquakes What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Earthquakes play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Earthquakes What If?

Next Game - Union (0‑1‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1* 2** 3** 4** 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 1 1 1 4 3% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 53%
Current Standings 0 1 1 1 3% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 55%
Lose Next Game 0 2 1 1 2% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 56%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1* 2** 3** 4** 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 3% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 53%
Current Standings 3% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 55%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 56%
Best Case Scenario
   Earthquakes beats Union
Worst Case Scenario
   Union beats Earthquakes
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1* 2** 3** 4** 5 6 7 8
32 of 32 100% 32 1 1 97 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 32 94% 30 3 1 91 94% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
29 of 32 91% 29 4 1 88 83% 16% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 32 88% 28 5 1 85 66% 31% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
27 of 32 84% 27 6 1 82 45% 45% 10% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
26 of 32 81% 26 7 1 79 26% 48% 23% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^
25 of 32 78% 25 8 1 76 12% 41% 36% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1%
24 of 32 75% 24 9 1 73 4% 25% 42% 24% 4% <1% <1% <1%
23 of 32 72% 23 10 1 70 1% 12% 34% 36% 15% 2% <1% <1%
22 of 32 69% 22 11 1 67 <1% 5% 22% 38% 27% 8% 1% <1%
21 of 32 66% 21 12 1 64 <1% 2% 11% 30% 36% 18% 4% <1%
20 of 32 63% 20 13 1 61 <1% <1% 5% 19% 35% 29% 10% 1%
19 of 32 59% 19 14 1 58 <1% <1% 2% 10% 28% 34% 20% 6%
18 of 32 56% 18 15 1 55 <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 34% 29% 14%
17 of 32 53% 17 16 1 52 <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 27% 34% 29%
16 of 32 50% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 33% 46%
15 of 32 47% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 25% 65%
14 of 32 44% 14 19 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 81%
13 of 32 41% 13 20 1 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 92%
10 of 32 31% 10 23 1 31 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 32 16% 5 28 1 16 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 32 0% 0 33 1 1 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs