The Earthquakes What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Earthquakes play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
| Win Next Game | 13 | 8 | 5 | 44 | 2% | 16% | 23% | 22% | 17% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 12 | 8 | 5 | 41 | 1% | 12% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Lose Next Game | 12 | 9 | 5 | 41 | 1% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 20% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 2% |
| Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 3% | 24% | 23% | 20% | 14% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 1% | 12% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
|
Best Case Scenario Earthquakes beats LAFC Austin FC beats FC Dallas Toronto FC beats St. Louis City SC |
Worst Case Scenario LAFC beats Earthquakes FC Dallas beats Austin FC St. Louis City SC beats Toronto FC |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | ||
| 9 of 9 | 100% | 21 | 8 | 5 | 68 | 64% | 36% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 9 | 89% | 20 | 9 | 5 | 65 | 37% | 60% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 9 | 78% | 19 | 10 | 5 | 62 | 14% | 68% | 17% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 9 | 67% | 18 | 11 | 5 | 59 | 3% | 40% | 44% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 9 | 56% | 17 | 12 | 5 | 56 | <1% | 8% | 35% | 40% | 15% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 of 9 | 44% | 16 | 13 | 5 | 53 | <1% | <1% | 6% | 27% | 41% | 22% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 of 9 | 33% | 15 | 14 | 5 | 50 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 18% | 42% | 31% | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 of 9 | 22% | 14 | 15 | 5 | 47 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 10% | 36% | 38% | 14% | 2% |
| 1 of 9 | 11% | 13 | 16 | 5 | 44 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 20% | 38% | 39% |
| 0 of 9 | 0% | 12 | 17 | 5 | 41 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 93% |