The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
Win Next Game | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 46% |
Current Standings | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 55% |
Lose Next Game | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 59% |
Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
Best Case Scenario | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 45% |
Current Standings | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 55% |
Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 61% |
Best Case Scenario CF Montréal beats Revolution Fire beats Orlando City SC Toronto FC beats Charlotte FC |
Worst Case Scenario Revolution beats CF Montréal Orlando City SC beats Fire Charlotte FC beats Toronto FC |
Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | ||
20 of 20 | 100% | 25 | 5 | 4 | 79 | >99% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
19 of 20 | 95% | 24 | 6 | 4 | 76 | 99% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
18 of 20 | 90% | 23 | 7 | 4 | 73 | 93% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
17 of 20 | 85% | 22 | 8 | 4 | 70 | 79% | 19% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
16 of 20 | 80% | 21 | 9 | 4 | 67 | 54% | 38% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
15 of 20 | 75% | 20 | 10 | 4 | 64 | 25% | 46% | 25% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
14 of 20 | 70% | 19 | 11 | 4 | 61 | 6% | 26% | 40% | 23% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
13 of 20 | 65% | 18 | 12 | 4 | 58 | <1% | 5% | 22% | 36% | 26% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
12 of 20 | 60% | 17 | 13 | 4 | 55 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 31% | 32% | 15% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
11 of 20 | 55% | 16 | 14 | 4 | 52 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 24% | 34% | 23% | 8% | 1% |
10 of 20 | 50% | 15 | 15 | 4 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 17% | 34% | 31% | 14% |
9 of 20 | 45% | 14 | 16 | 4 | 46 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 13% | 33% | 51% |
8 of 20 | 40% | 13 | 17 | 4 | 43 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 12% | 86% |
7 of 20 | 35% | 12 | 18 | 4 | 40 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 99% |
6 of 20 | 30% | 11 | 19 | 4 | 37 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
5 of 20 | 25% | 10 | 20 | 4 | 34 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
4 of 20 | 20% | 9 | 21 | 4 | 31 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
3 of 20 | 15% | 8 | 22 | 4 | 28 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
2 of 20 | 10% | 7 | 23 | 4 | 25 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
1 of 20 | 5% | 6 | 24 | 4 | 22 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
0 of 20 | 0% | 5 | 25 | 4 | 19 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |