The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
| Win Next Game | 9 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 19% |
| Current Standings | 8 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 27% |
| Lose Next Game | 8 | 8 | 4 | 28 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 32% |
| Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 1% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 17% |
| Current Standings | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 27% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 36% |
|
Best Case Scenario Fire beats FC Cincinnati Earthquakes beats Red Bulls Timbers beats Revolution |
Worst Case Scenario FC Cincinnati beats Fire Red Bulls beats Earthquakes Revolution beats Timbers |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | ||
| 15 of 15 | 100% | 23 | 7 | 4 | 73 | 94% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 15 | 93% | 22 | 8 | 4 | 70 | 78% | 20% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 15 | 87% | 21 | 9 | 4 | 67 | 48% | 41% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 15 | 80% | 20 | 10 | 4 | 64 | 17% | 43% | 32% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 11 of 15 | 73% | 19 | 11 | 4 | 61 | 2% | 18% | 38% | 31% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 10 of 15 | 67% | 18 | 12 | 4 | 58 | <1% | 2% | 13% | 34% | 35% | 14% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 9 of 15 | 60% | 17 | 13 | 4 | 55 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 27% | 40% | 21% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 of 15 | 53% | 16 | 14 | 4 | 52 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 20% | 38% | 29% | 8% | 1% |
| 7 of 15 | 47% | 15 | 15 | 4 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 35% | 34% | 14% |
| 6 of 15 | 40% | 14 | 16 | 4 | 46 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 11% | 34% | 54% |
| 5 of 15 | 33% | 13 | 17 | 4 | 43 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 11% | 88% |
| 4 of 15 | 27% | 12 | 18 | 4 | 40 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 99% |
| 3 of 15 | 20% | 11 | 19 | 4 | 37 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 2 of 15 | 13% | 10 | 20 | 4 | 34 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 1 of 15 | 7% | 9 | 21 | 4 | 31 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 15 | 0% | 8 | 22 | 4 | 28 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |