The Most Important Games for the Fire are those games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Fire final playoff standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Fire fans can use this table to identify the most interesting games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Fire Resultant Playoff Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |||
| Fire (10‑9‑5) vs LAFC (10‑6‑6) |
48 | Fire Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 23% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 19% | ||
| LAFC Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 12% | 20% | 31% | 27% | ||
| FC Cincinnati (15‑6‑4) vs Charlotte FC (12‑11‑2) |
10 | FC Cincinnati Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 16% | 20% | 26% | 19% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 19% | ||
| Charlotte FC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 20% | 29% | 21% | ||
| Real Salt Lake (9‑11‑4) vs Red Bulls (9‑10‑6) |
9 | Real Salt Lake Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 22% | 29% | 14% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 19% | ||
| Red Bulls Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 22% | ||
| Inter Miami CF (12‑4‑6) vs Orlando City SC (11‑6‑8) |
8 | Inter Miami CF Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 26% | 19% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 19% | ||
| Orlando City SC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 15% | 21% | 28% | 20% | ||
| Crew (12‑5‑8) vs NY City FC (11‑8‑5) |
5 | Crew Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 16% | 23% | 25% | 19% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 19% | ||
| NY City FC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 20% | 28% | 21% | ||
| D.C. United (4‑14‑7) vs Revolution (6‑11‑7) |
2 | D.C. United Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 19% | ||
| Revolution Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 26% | 20% | ||
| St. Louis City SC (4‑14‑6) vs Nashville SC (14‑6‑5) |
1 | St. Louis City SC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 26% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 19% | ||
| Nashville SC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 20% | ||
| Toronto FC (5‑13‑6) vs Union (15‑5‑5) |
1 | Toronto FC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 26% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 19% | ||
| Union Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 26% | 20% | ||
| CF Montréal (4‑15‑6) vs Atlanta United (4‑11‑9) |
0 | CF Montréal Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 26% | 19% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 27% | 19% | ||
| Atlanta United Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 26% | 19% | ||