The Most Important Games for the Union are those games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Union final playoff standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Union fans can use this table to identify the most interesting games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Union Resultant Playoff Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |||
| Union (12‑10‑6) vs Charlotte FC (13‑8‑7) |
30 | Union Wins | X | 1% | 5% | 13% | 24% | 44% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Charlotte FC Wins | X | <1% | 1% | 3% | 10% | 52% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Union (12‑10‑6) vs Fire (14‑8‑6) |
26 | Union Wins | X | 2% | 7% | 14% | 24% | 43% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Fire Wins | X | <1% | <1% | 5% | 15% | 51% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Crew (8‑15‑5) vs FC Cincinnati (9‑9‑9) |
6 | Crew Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 9% | 18% | 51% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| FC Cincinnati Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 9% | 17% | 45% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | ||
| LAFC (11‑9‑9) vs NY City FC (8‑11‑9) |
4 | LAFC Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 9% | 18% | 49% | 14% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| NY City FC Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 47% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Toronto FC (7‑10‑11) vs Orlando City SC (11‑13‑4) |
4 | Toronto FC Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 50% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Orlando City SC Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 9% | 17% | 45% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | ||
| D.C. United (6‑9‑12) vs Orlando City SC (11‑13‑4) |
4 | D.C. United Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 9% | 18% | 50% | 14% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Orlando City SC Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 46% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Crew (8‑15‑5) vs Charlotte FC (13‑8‑7) |
3 | Crew Wins | X | 1% | 4% | 10% | 19% | 44% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Charlotte FC Wins | X | <1% | 3% | 6% | 16% | 52% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Revolution (14‑10‑4) vs FC Cincinnati (9‑9‑9) |
3 | Revolution Wins | X | <1% | 2% | 7% | 16% | 56% | 13% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| FC Cincinnati Wins | X | 1% | 4% | 10% | 18% | 41% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Inter Miami CF (13‑5‑10) vs NY City FC (8‑11‑9) |
3 | Inter Miami CF Wins | X | <1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 49% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| NY City FC Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 45% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | ||
| D.C. United (6‑9‑12) vs Red Bull (10‑12‑6) |
2 | D.C. United Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 49% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Red Bull Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 47% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Toronto FC (7‑10‑11) vs Red Bull (10‑12‑6) |
1 | Toronto FC Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Red Bull Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 47% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Fire (14‑8‑6) vs Revolution (14‑10‑4) |
1 | Fire Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 9% | 20% | 46% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Revolution Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 51% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Atlanta United (7‑15‑6) vs CF Montréal (6‑16‑6) |
1 | Atlanta United Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| CF Montréal Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Sounders (11‑9‑8) vs CF Montréal (6‑16‑6) |
0 | Sounders Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| CF Montréal Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Atlanta United (7‑15‑6) vs Inter Miami CF (13‑5‑10) |
0 | Atlanta United Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 47% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Inter Miami CF Wins | X | <1% | 3% | 8% | 18% | 49% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Nashville SC (19‑3‑6) vs Sporting KC (6‑18‑4) |
0 | Nashville SC Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Sporting KC Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| EarthquakesEarthquaks (13‑8‑7) vs Nashville SC (19‑3‑6) |
0 | EarthquakesEarthquaks Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||
| Nashville SC Wins | X | 1% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 48% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||