The Union What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Union play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
| Win Next Game | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 53% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 40% | 25% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 12 | 5 | 4 | 40 | 31% | 26% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 60% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 40% | 25% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 28% | 27% | 18% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Atlanta United beats Inter Miami CF CF Montréal beats Inter Miami CF Union beats Nashville SC |
Worst Case Scenario Inter Miami CF beats Atlanta United Inter Miami CF beats CF Montréal Nashville SC beats Union |
|||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | ||
| 14 of 14 | 100% | 26 | 4 | 4 | 82 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 14 | 93% | 25 | 5 | 4 | 79 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 14 | 86% | 24 | 6 | 4 | 76 | 99% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 14 | 79% | 23 | 7 | 4 | 73 | 95% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 14 | 71% | 22 | 8 | 4 | 70 | 84% | 15% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 14 | 64% | 21 | 9 | 4 | 67 | 60% | 36% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 14 | 57% | 20 | 10 | 4 | 64 | 28% | 48% | 21% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 7 of 14 | 50% | 19 | 11 | 4 | 61 | 6% | 29% | 41% | 20% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 of 14 | 43% | 18 | 12 | 4 | 58 | <1% | 5% | 24% | 39% | 24% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 of 14 | 36% | 17 | 13 | 4 | 55 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 35% | 32% | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 of 14 | 29% | 16 | 14 | 4 | 52 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 25% | 36% | 24% | 7% | 1% |
| 3 of 14 | 21% | 15 | 15 | 4 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 33% | 34% | 16% |
| 2 of 14 | 14% | 14 | 16 | 4 | 46 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 30% | 61% |
| 1 of 14 | 7% | 13 | 17 | 4 | 43 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 7% | 93% |
| 0 of 14 | 0% | 12 | 18 | 4 | 40 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |