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Sun Apr 14 9:15 pm

MLS - Week 9 of 35

Union What If?

The Union What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Union play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Union What If?

Next Game - Real Salt Lake (3‑2‑3)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 4 0 4 16 36% 18% 12% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 5%
Current Standings 3 0 4 13 34% 18% 12% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 3% 6%
Lose Next Game 3 1 4 13 29% 18% 12% 9% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 7%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 35% 18% 12% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 6%
Current Standings 34% 18% 12% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 3% 6%
Worst Case Scenario 34% 17% 12% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 6%
Best Case Scenario
   FC Cincinnati beats Atlanta United
 Worst Case Scenario
   Atlanta United beats FC Cincinnati
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
27 of 27 100% 30 0 4 94 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 27 93% 28 2 4 88 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 27 78% 24 6 4 76 89% 11% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
20 of 27 74% 23 7 4 73 76% 23% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
19 of 27 70% 22 8 4 70 56% 37% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
18 of 27 67% 21 9 4 67 34% 46% 18% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 27 63% 20 10 4 64 16% 41% 32% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 27 59% 19 11 4 61 5% 24% 39% 25% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 27 56% 18 12 4 58 1% 8% 27% 37% 21% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 27 52% 17 13 4 55 <1% 1% 10% 27% 35% 20% 5% 1% <1% <1%
13 of 27 48% 16 14 4 52 <1% <1% 1% 9% 26% 36% 21% 6% 1% <1%
12 of 27 44% 15 15 4 49 <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 7% 1%
11 of 27 41% 14 16 4 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 20% 34% 27% 12%
10 of 27 37% 13 17 4 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 33% 46%
9 of 27 33% 12 18 4 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 82%
5 of 27 19% 8 22 4 28 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 27 0% 3 27 4 13 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs