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Mon Sep 28 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Buccaneers What If?

The Buccaneers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Buccaneers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Buccaneers What If?

Next Game - Packers (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 1 3 0 <1% 1% 4% 9% 1% 2% 3% 79%
Current Standings 0 3 0 <1% 1% 3% 9% 1% 2% 3% 81%
Lose Next Game 0 4 0 <1% <1% 2% 9% <1% 1% 2% 85%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 4% 9% 1% 2% 3% 79%
Current Standings <1% 1% 3% 9% 1% 2% 3% 81%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 2% 9% <1% 1% 2% 85%
Best Case Scenario
   Buccaneers beats Packers
 Worst Case Scenario
   Packers beats Buccaneers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 14 3 0 38% 48% 13% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 13 4 0 15% 44% 35% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 14 86% 12 5 0 3% 22% 48% 21% 5% 2% <1% <1%
11 of 14 79% 11 6 0 <1% 5% 34% 39% 8% 10% 3% 1%
10 of 14 71% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 12% 42% 4% 15% 16% 10%
9 of 14 64% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 3% 29% 1% 6% 17% 45%
8 of 14 57% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 14% <1% 1% 5% 80%
7 of 14 50% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1% 95%
6 of 14 43% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
5 of 14 36% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 14 29% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X X >99%
3 of 14 21% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 14 14% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 14 7% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 0 17 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs