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Mon Sep 28 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Dolphins What If?

The Dolphins What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Dolphins play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Dolphins What If?

Next Game - Vikings (3‑0)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 1 3 0 <1% 1% 4% 5% 2% 4% 5% 79%
Current Standings 0 3 0 <1% 1% 3% 4% 1% 3% 5% 83%
Lose Next Game 0 4 0 <1% <1% 2% 4% 1% 3% 4% 85%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 4% 5% 2% 4% 5% 79%
Current Standings <1% 1% 3% 4% 1% 3% 5% 83%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 2% 4% 1% 3% 4% 85%
Best Case Scenario
   Dolphins beats Vikings
 Worst Case Scenario
   Vikings beats Dolphins
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 14 3 0 30% 49% 18% 1% 3% <1% <1% ^
13 of 14 93% 13 4 0 8% 36% 36% 6% 12% 1% <1% <1%
12 of 14 86% 12 5 0 1% 14% 39% 16% 18% 10% 2% <1%
11 of 14 79% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 24% 23% 14% 22% 11% 2%
10 of 14 71% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 10% 21% 6% 21% 26% 17%
9 of 14 64% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 12% 1% 8% 22% 55%
8 of 14 57% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 4% <1% 1% 6% 88%
7 of 14 50% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
6 of 14 43% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 14 36% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
4 of 14 29% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
3 of 14 21% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 14 14% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 14 7% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 0 17 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs