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Mon Sep 28 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Lions What If?

The Lions What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Lions play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Lions What If?

Next Game - Panthers (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 1 0 12% 9% 4% 2% 14% 10% 9% 40%
Current Standings 2 1 0 10% 8% 4% 2% 13% 10% 8% 45%
Lose Next Game 2 2 0 6% 7% 4% 2% 12% 10% 9% 50%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 13% 10% 4% 2% 13% 10% 9% 39%
Current Standings 10% 8% 4% 2% 13% 10% 8% 45%
Worst Case Scenario 6% 7% 4% 2% 12% 10% 8% 50%
Best Case Scenario
   Dolphins beats Vikings
   Lions beats Panthers
 Worst Case Scenario
   Vikings beats Dolphins
   Panthers beats Lions
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 16 1 0 96% 4% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 15 2 0 82% 16% <1% <1% 2% <1% ^ ^
12 of 14 86% 14 3 0 50% 35% 3% <1% 13% <1% <1% ^
11 of 14 79% 13 4 0 17% 36% 11% 1% 31% 3% <1% <1%
10 of 14 71% 12 5 0 3% 17% 18% 4% 39% 18% 2% <1%
9 of 14 64% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 10% 8% 25% 35% 16% 3%
8 of 14 57% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 2% 6% 8% 27% 33% 24%
7 of 14 50% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% 1% 7% 23% 66%
6 of 14 43% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 5% 94%
5 of 14 36% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 14 29% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 14 21% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
2 of 14 14% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 14 7% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs