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Mon Oct 19 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 7 of 18

Raiders What If?

The Raiders What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Raiders play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Raiders What If?

Next Game - Rams (2‑4)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 3 0 1% 2% 3% 2% 7% 9% 10% 67%
Current Standings 3 3 0 <1% 1% 2% 2% 6% 8% 10% 70%
Lose Next Game 3 4 0 <1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 7% 8% 77%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 1% 2% 3% 3% 7% 8% 10% 65%
Current Standings <1% 1% 2% 2% 6% 8% 10% 70%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 6% 8% 79%
Best Case Scenario
   Cardinals beats Broncos
   Raiders beats Rams
   Seahawks beats Chiefs
 Worst Case Scenario
   Broncos beats Cardinals
   Rams beats Raiders
   Chiefs beats Seahawks
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
11 of 11 100% 14 3 0 38% 30% 6% <1% 25% <1% <1% ^
10 of 11 91% 13 4 0 11% 26% 17% 3% 40% 4% <1% <1%
9 of 11 82% 12 5 0 1% 9% 17% 8% 42% 20% 3% <1%
8 of 11 73% 11 6 0 <1% 1% 8% 8% 22% 37% 20% 5%
7 of 11 64% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 1% 4% 5% 23% 35% 32%
6 of 11 55% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 4% 18% 76%
5 of 11 45% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 97%
4 of 11 36% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 11 27% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 11 18% 5 12 0 X X X X X X <1% >99%
1 of 11 9% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 11 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs