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Tue Oct 13 12:00 am

NFL - Week 6 of 18

Texans What If?

The Texans What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Texans play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Texans What If?

Next Game - Jaguars (4‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 4 0 <1% <1% 1% 4% <1% 2% 3% 90%
Current Standings 1 4 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% 1% 2% 94%
Lose Next Game 1 5 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 2% 96%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 4% <1% 2% 3% 90%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% 1% 2% 94%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 2% 96%
Best Case Scenario
   Texans beats Jaguars
 Worst Case Scenario
   Jaguars beats Texans
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
12 of 12 100% 13 4 0 9% 44% 34% 6% 6% 1% <1% <1%
11 of 12 92% 12 5 0 1% 14% 34% 22% 16% 11% 2% <1%
10 of 12 83% 11 6 0 <1% 1% 14% 28% 12% 25% 15% 3%
9 of 12 75% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 3% 20% 3% 18% 27% 29%
8 of 12 67% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 9% <1% 4% 16% 71%
7 of 12 58% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 3% 95%
6 of 12 50% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
5 of 12 42% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 12 33% 5 12 0 X X X <1% X <1% <1% >99%
3 of 12 25% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 12 17% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 12 8% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 12 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs