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Wed Oct 21 3:00 am

NHL - Week 4 of 28

Flames What If?

The Flames What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Flames play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Flames What If?

Next Game - Wild (6‑2‑2)

  Resultant Record Pacific Divisional Winners Central Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L OTLi
Overtime Loses
 Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Win Next Game 3 6 0 6 3% 7% 11% - - - 6% 6% 68%
Current Standings 2 6 0 4 2% 7% 10% - - - 6% 6% 69%
Lose Next Game 2 7 0 4 2% 6% 10% - - - 6% 6% 71%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Pacific Divisional Winners Central Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 3% 7% 11% - - - 6% 6% 68%
Current Standings 2% 7% 10% - - - 6% 6% 69%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 6% 10% - - - 6% 6% 71%
Best Case Scenario
   Flames beats Wild
 Worst Case Scenario
   Wild beats Flames
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Pacific Divisional Winners Central Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L OTL Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
76 of 76 100% 78 6 0 156 >99% <1% ^ - - - ^ ^ ^
70 of 76 92% 72 12 0 144 >99% <1% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
66 of 76 87% 68 16 0 136 94% 6% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
65 of 76 86% 67 17 0 134 91% 9% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
64 of 76 84% 66 18 0 132 86% 14% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
63 of 76 83% 65 19 0 130 81% 18% 1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
62 of 76 82% 64 20 0 128 74% 24% 2% - - - <1% <1% <1%
61 of 76 80% 63 21 0 126 68% 28% 3% - - - <1% <1% <1%
60 of 76 79% 62 22 0 124 62% 33% 5% - - - <1% <1% <1%
59 of 76 78% 61 23 0 122 54% 38% 8% - - - 1% <1% <1%
58 of 76 76% 60 24 0 120 47% 42% 10% - - - 1% <1% <1%
57 of 76 75% 59 25 0 118 40% 44% 15% - - - 2% <1% <1%
56 of 76 74% 58 26 0 116 34% 46% 18% - - - 3% <1% <1%
55 of 76 72% 57 27 0 114 29% 46% 22% - - - 4% <1% <1%
54 of 76 71% 56 28 0 112 23% 44% 26% - - - 6% <1% <1%
53 of 76 70% 55 29 0 110 19% 42% 30% - - - 8% 1% <1%
52 of 76 68% 54 30 0 108 15% 40% 33% - - - 11% 1% <1%
51 of 76 67% 53 31 0 106 11% 37% 36% - - - 14% 3% <1%
50 of 76 66% 52 32 0 104 9% 31% 39% - - - 17% 4% <1%
49 of 76 64% 51 33 0 102 6% 28% 39% - - - 19% 6% 1%
48 of 76 63% 50 34 0 100 5% 23% 39% - - - 23% 9% 2%
47 of 76 62% 49 35 0 98 4% 20% 37% - - - 24% 12% 3%
46 of 76 61% 48 36 0 96 3% 17% 35% - - - 24% 16% 6%
45 of 76 59% 47 37 0 94 2% 14% 31% - - - 24% 20% 10%
44 of 76 58% 46 38 0 92 1% 10% 29% - - - 22% 23% 15%
43 of 76 57% 45 39 0 90 1% 8% 26% - - - 19% 25% 22%
42 of 76 55% 44 40 0 88 <1% 6% 21% - - - 16% 26% 30%
41 of 76 54% 43 41 0 86 <1% 4% 18% - - - 12% 25% 41%
40 of 76 53% 42 42 0 84 <1% 3% 15% - - - 9% 23% 51%
39 of 76 51% 41 43 0 82 <1% 2% 12% - - - 6% 19% 61%
38 of 76 50% 40 44 0 80 <1% 1% 9% - - - 4% 15% 71%
37 of 76 49% 39 45 0 78 <1% 1% 7% - - - 2% 11% 80%
36 of 76 47% 38 46 0 76 <1% 1% 5% - - - 1% 7% 86%
35 of 76 46% 37 47 0 74 <1% <1% 4% - - - <1% 4% 91%
34 of 76 45% 36 48 0 72 <1% <1% 2% - - - <1% 3% 95%
30 of 76 39% 32 52 0 64 <1% <1% <1% - - - <1% <1% >99%
20 of 76 26% 22 62 0 44 <1% <1% <1% - - - <1% <1% >99%
10 of 76 13% 12 72 0 24 X X X - - - X X 100%
0 of 76 0% 2 82 0 4 X X X - - - X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home ice advantage in the playoffs