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Wed Oct 8 7:00 pm

UEFA Champions League - Week 6 of 20

Arsenal What If?

The Arsenal What If table presents qualifing probabilities depended upon how Arsenal plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Arsenal What If?

Next Game - Atletico Madrid (1‑1)

  Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Win Next Game 3 0 0 9 9% 11% 10% 10% 10% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 2 0 0 6 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Lose Next Game 2 1 0 6 1% 2% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Qualifing Finish Elimination
  1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Best Case Scenario 9% 11% 10% 10% 10% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 2% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3%
Best Case Scenario
   Arsenal beats Atletico Madrid
 Worst Case Scenario
   Atletico Madrid beats Arsenal
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the qualifing probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
6 of 6 100% 8 0 0 24 94% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 6 83% 7 1 0 21 47% 39% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 6 67% 6 2 0 18 1% 8% 23% 30% 23% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 6 50% 5 3 0 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 12% 19% 24% 20% 13% 5% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2 of 6 33% 4 4 0 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 11% 19% 22% 21% 12% 6% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1 of 6 17% 3 5 0 9 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 11% 17% 23% 43%
0 of 6 0% 2 6 0 6 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this qualifing spot
  • X means the team cannot win this qualifing spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the knockout round