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Wed Oct 22 5:15 pm

UEFA Champions League - Week 8 of 20

Benfica What If?

The Benfica What If table presents qualifing probabilities depended upon how Benfica plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Benfica What If?

Next Game - Leverkusen (0‑1‑2)

  Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Win Next Game 1 3 0 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 31%
Current Standings 0 3 0 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 52%
Lose Next Game 0 4 0 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 71%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Qualifing Finish Elimination
  1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 31%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 52%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 71%
Best Case Scenario
   Benfica beats Leverkusen
 Worst Case Scenario
   Leverkusen beats Benfica
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the qualifing probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
5 of 5 100% 5 3 0 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 7% 17% 26% 25% 16% 7% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4 of 5 80% 4 4 0 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 9% 18% 23% 22% 15% 7% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3 of 5 60% 3 5 0 9 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 10% 18% 22% 21% 22%
2 of 5 40% 2 6 0 6 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 5 20% 1 7 0 3 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 5 0% 0 8 0 0 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this qualifing spot
  • X means the team cannot win this qualifing spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the knockout round