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Wed Oct 8 7:00 pm

UEFA Champions League - Week 6 of 20

Benfica What If?

The Benfica What If table presents qualifing probabilities depended upon how Benfica plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Benfica What If?

Next Game - Newcastle (1‑1)

  Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Win Next Game 1 2 0 3 <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 20%
Current Standings 0 2 0 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 28%
Lose Next Game 0 3 0 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 55%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Qualifing Finish Elimination
  1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 20%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 28%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 55%
Best Case Scenario
   Benfica beats Newcastle
 Worst Case Scenario
   Newcastle beats Benfica
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the qualifing probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
6 of 6 100% 6 2 0 18 1% 10% 25% 31% 21% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 6 83% 5 3 0 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 13% 22% 25% 19% 10% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4 of 6 67% 4 4 0 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 7% 14% 21% 22% 18% 10% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3 of 6 50% 3 5 0 9 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 6% 14% 22% 22% 33%
2 of 6 33% 2 6 0 6 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 6 17% 1 7 0 3 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 6 0% 0 8 0 0 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this qualifing spot
  • X means the team cannot win this qualifing spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the knockout round