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Wed Oct 22 5:15 pm

UEFA Champions League - Week 8 of 20

Chelsea What If?

The Chelsea What If table presents qualifing probabilities depended upon how Chelsea plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Chelsea What If?

Next Game - Qarabag (2‑1)

  Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Win Next Game 3 1 0 9 1% 3% 5% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 2 1 0 6 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Lose Next Game 2 2 0 6 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 5%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Qualifing Finish Elimination
  1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Best Case Scenario 2% 5% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 5%
Best Case Scenario
   Slavia Prague beats Arsenal
   Chelsea beats Qarabag
   Kairat beats Inter Milan
 Worst Case Scenario
   Arsenal beats Slavia Prague
   Qarabag beats Chelsea
   Inter Milan beats Kairat
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the qualifing probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
5 of 5 100% 7 1 0 21 19% 41% 30% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 5 80% 6 2 0 18 <1% 1% 8% 23% 32% 24% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 5 60% 5 3 0 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 20% 28% 23% 13% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2 of 5 40% 4 4 0 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 11% 20% 24% 20% 12% 5% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1 of 5 20% 3 5 0 9 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 10% 18% 23% 20% 23%
0 of 5 0% 2 6 0 6 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this qualifing spot
  • X means the team cannot win this qualifing spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the knockout round