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Wed Jan 21 5:45 pm

UEFA Champions League - Week 20 of 20

Dortmund What If?

The Dortmund What If table presents qualifing probabilities depended upon how Dortmund plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Dortmund What If?

Next Game - Inter Milan (4‑3)

  Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Win Next Game 4 2 2 14 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 3% 9% 20% 29% 25% 12% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Current Standings 3 2 2 11 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 8% 12% 10% 5% 1% 6% 17% 18% 14% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 3 3 2 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 13% 41% 34% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Qualifing Finish Elimination
  1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Best Case Scenario X X X X <1% 1% 4% 15% 29% 29% 17% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Current Standings X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 8% 12% 10% 5% 1% 6% 17% 18% 14% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 13% 43% 33% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
Best Case Scenario
   Copenhagen beats Barcelona
   Dortmund beats Inter Milan
   Galatasaray beats Manchester City
 Worst Case Scenario
   Barcelona beats Copenhagen
   Inter Milan beats Dortmund
   Manchester City beats Galatasaray
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the qualifing probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1 of 1 100% 4 2 2 14 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 20% 28% 24% 12% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
0 of 1 0% 3 3 2 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 12% 41% 34% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this qualifing spot
  • X means the team cannot win this qualifing spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the knockout round