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Wed Oct 22 5:15 pm

UEFA Champions League - Week 8 of 20

Dortmund What If?

The Dortmund What If table presents qualifing probabilities depended upon how Dortmund plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Dortmund What If?

Next Game - Manchester City (2‑0‑1)

  Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Win Next Game 3 0 1 10 8% 12% 12% 12% 12% 10% 9% 7% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 2 0 1 7 2% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Lose Next Game 2 1 1 7 <1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Qualifing Finish Elimination
  1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Best Case Scenario 8% 12% 12% 12% 12% 10% 9% 7% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 2% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Dortmund beats Manchester City
 Worst Case Scenario
   Manchester City beats Dortmund
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the qualifing probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Qualifing Finish Elimination
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 2*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 3*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 4*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 5*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 6*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 7*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 8*
First Round Bye in the
Knockout Round
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
5 of 5 100% 7 0 1 22 59% 37% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 5 80% 6 1 1 19 2% 16% 33% 31% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 5 60% 5 2 1 16 <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 20% 29% 24% 12% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
2 of 5 40% 4 3 1 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 7% 16% 24% 24% 16% 7% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1 of 5 20% 3 4 1 10 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 12% 20% 22% 19% 12% 5% 2% <1%
0 of 5 0% 2 5 1 7 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this qualifing spot
  • X means the team cannot win this qualifing spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this qualifing spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the knockout round