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Sun Aug 24 3:00 pm

Bundesliga - Week 1 of 39

Mainz What If?

The Mainz What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Mainz What If?

Next Game - VfL Wolfsburg (1‑0)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 1 1 0 3 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 10%
Current Standings 0 1 0 0 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 15%
Lose Next Game 0 2 0 0 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 18%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 10%
Current Standings 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 15%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 18%
Best Case Scenario
   Mainz beats VfL Wolfsburg
 Worst Case Scenario
   VfL Wolfsburg beats Mainz
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
33 of 33 100% 33 1 0 99 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 33 91% 30 4 0 90 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 33 76% 25 9 0 75 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 33 67% 22 12 0 66 92% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 33 64% 21 13 0 63 78% 21% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
20 of 33 61% 20 14 0 60 48% 40% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
19 of 33 58% 19 15 0 57 15% 38% 32% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
18 of 33 55% 18 16 0 54 1% 9% 25% 33% 22% 8% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
17 of 33 52% 17 17 0 51 <1% <1% 1% 8% 21% 31% 24% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 33 48% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 12% 25% 30% 20% 7% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 33 45% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 14% 27% 29% 18% 6% 1% <1% <1%
14 of 33 42% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 22% 31% 25% 10% 2%
13 of 33 39% 13 21 0 39 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 24% 36% 30%
12 of 33 36% 12 22 0 36 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 19% 77%
10 of 33 30% 10 24 0 30 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 33 15% 5 29 0 15 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 33 0% 0 34 0 0 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Bundesliga Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ##  denotes Relegation Playoff