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Sat Aug 30 3:15 pm

English Premier League - Week 3 of 41

Chelsea What If?

The Chelsea What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Chelsea What If?

Next Game - Brentford (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 3 0 1 10 13% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 5%
Current Standings 2 0 1 7 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 8%
Lose Next Game 2 1 1 7 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 10%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 7%
Current Standings 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 8%
Worst Case Scenario 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 8%
Best Case Scenario
   Aston Villa beats Crystal Palace
 Worst Case Scenario
   Crystal Palace beats Aston Villa
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
35 of 35 100% 37 0 1 112 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 35 86% 32 5 1 97 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 35 71% 27 10 1 82 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 35 63% 24 13 1 73 93% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 35 60% 23 14 1 70 80% 19% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
20 of 35 57% 22 15 1 67 53% 37% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
19 of 35 54% 21 16 1 64 21% 40% 28% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
18 of 35 51% 20 17 1 61 3% 15% 30% 30% 16% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 35 49% 19 18 1 58 <1% 1% 5% 15% 28% 28% 17% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 35 46% 18 19 1 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 20% 28% 24% 12% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 35 43% 17 20 1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 21% 28% 24% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 35 40% 16 21 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 10% 22% 29% 22% 10% 2% <1%
13 of 35 37% 15 22 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 17% 29% 28% 19%
12 of 35 34% 14 23 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 21% 72%
10 of 35 29% 12 25 1 37 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 35 14% 7 30 1 22 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 35 0% 2 35 1 7 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes EPL Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ***denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League