The Toledo Rockets What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Toledo plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Win Next Game | 3 | 2 | 2% | 7% | 9% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 2 | 2% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 3% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 2 | 3 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 13% | 8% | 1% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 3% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 3% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 3% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 1% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 3% | <1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Central Michigan beats Western Michigan |
Worst Case Scenario Western Michigan beats Central Michigan |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | ||
| 4 of 4 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 21% | 47% | 26% | 6% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 4 | 75% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 3% | 19% | 34% | 27% | 13% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 4 | 50% | 4 | 4 | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 23% | 33% | 25% | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 11% | 31% | 37% | 17% | 3% | <1% |
| 0 of 4 | 0% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 9% | 42% | 41% | 8% |