The Cubs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Cubs play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Win Next Game | 23 | 16 | 13% | 20% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 30% |
| Current Standings | 22 | 16 | 12% | 19% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 32% |
| Lose Next Game | 22 | 17 | 11% | 19% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 33% |
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Cubs Sweeps | 25 | 16 | 15% | 22% | 21% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 27% |
| Current Standings | 22 | 16 | 12% | 19% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 32% |
| Mets Sweeps | 22 | 19 | 9% | 18% | 23% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 35% |
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 124 of 124 | 100% | 146 | 16 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 120 of 124 | 97% | 142 | 20 | >99% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 110 of 124 | 89% | 132 | 30 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 100 of 124 | 81% | 122 | 40 | 99% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 95 of 124 | 77% | 117 | 45 | 94% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 94 of 124 | 76% | 116 | 46 | 92% | 8% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 93 of 124 | 75% | 115 | 47 | 89% | 11% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 92 of 124 | 74% | 114 | 48 | 86% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 91 of 124 | 73% | 113 | 49 | 81% | 18% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 90 of 124 | 73% | 112 | 50 | 76% | 23% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 89 of 124 | 72% | 111 | 51 | 71% | 28% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 88 of 124 | 71% | 110 | 52 | 65% | 33% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 87 of 124 | 70% | 109 | 53 | 58% | 39% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 86 of 124 | 69% | 108 | 54 | 52% | 44% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 85 of 124 | 69% | 107 | 55 | 44% | 49% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 84 of 124 | 68% | 106 | 56 | 39% | 52% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 83 of 124 | 67% | 105 | 57 | 33% | 55% | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 82 of 124 | 66% | 104 | 58 | 26% | 57% | 16% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 81 of 124 | 65% | 103 | 59 | 21% | 58% | 19% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 80 of 124 | 65% | 102 | 60 | 16% | 56% | 25% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 79 of 124 | 64% | 101 | 61 | 12% | 55% | 28% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 78 of 124 | 63% | 100 | 62 | 9% | 52% | 33% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 77 of 124 | 62% | 99 | 63 | 7% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 76 of 124 | 61% | 98 | 64 | 5% | 41% | 43% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 75 of 124 | 60% | 97 | 65 | 3% | 36% | 45% | 8% | 6% | 1% | <1% |
| 74 of 124 | 60% | 96 | 66 | 2% | 31% | 48% | 8% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 73 of 124 | 59% | 95 | 67 | 1% | 26% | 50% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
| 72 of 124 | 58% | 94 | 68 | 1% | 19% | 51% | 9% | 14% | 6% | 1% |
| 71 of 124 | 57% | 93 | 69 | <1% | 15% | 50% | 8% | 16% | 9% | 2% |
| 70 of 124 | 56% | 92 | 70 | <1% | 11% | 48% | 7% | 17% | 13% | 5% |
| 69 of 124 | 56% | 91 | 71 | <1% | 8% | 45% | 6% | 17% | 17% | 8% |
| 68 of 124 | 55% | 90 | 72 | <1% | 5% | 42% | 4% | 16% | 20% | 12% |
| 67 of 124 | 54% | 89 | 73 | <1% | 4% | 38% | 3% | 14% | 22% | 19% |
| 66 of 124 | 53% | 88 | 74 | <1% | 2% | 34% | 2% | 11% | 23% | 28% |
| 65 of 124 | 52% | 87 | 75 | <1% | 1% | 29% | 1% | 9% | 22% | 37% |
| 64 of 124 | 52% | 86 | 76 | <1% | 1% | 24% | 1% | 7% | 20% | 48% |
| 63 of 124 | 51% | 85 | 77 | <1% | <1% | 20% | <1% | 4% | 16% | 58% |
| 62 of 124 | 50% | 84 | 78 | <1% | <1% | 16% | <1% | 3% | 13% | 68% |
| 61 of 124 | 49% | 83 | 79 | <1% | <1% | 14% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 76% |
| 60 of 124 | 48% | 82 | 80 | <1% | <1% | 10% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 84% |
| 59 of 124 | 48% | 81 | 81 | <1% | <1% | 8% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 88% |
| 58 of 124 | 47% | 80 | 82 | <1% | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 93% |
| 57 of 124 | 46% | 79 | 83 | <1% | <1% | 4% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 95% |
| 50 of 124 | 40% | 72 | 90 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 40 of 124 | 32% | 62 | 100 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 30 of 124 | 24% | 52 | 110 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 20 of 124 | 16% | 42 | 120 | X | X | <1% | X | X | X | >99% |
| 10 of 124 | 8% | 32 | 130 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 124 | 0% | 22 | 140 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |