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Mon Jun 23 3:30 am

MLB - Week 15 of 28

Mariners What If?

The Mariners What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Mariners play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Mariners What If?

Next Game - Twins (37‑40)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 40 37 1% 4% 10% 8% 10% 10% 56%
Current Standings 39 37 1% 4% 10% 8% 9% 10% 59%
Lose Next Game 39 38 1% 3% 9% 7% 9% 9% 62%


Current Series - Twins (37‑40) - 4 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Mariners Sweeps 43 37 2% 6% 11% 10% 11% 11% 48%
Current Standings 39 37 1% 4% 10% 8% 9% 10% 59%
Twins Sweeps 39 41 <1% 2% 7% 5% 7% 9% 70%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
86 of 86 100% 125 37 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
80 of 86 93% 119 43 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
70 of 86 81% 109 53 98% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
68 of 86 79% 107 55 94% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
67 of 86 78% 106 56 92% 8% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
66 of 86 77% 105 57 88% 12% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
65 of 86 76% 104 58 83% 16% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
64 of 86 74% 103 59 78% 20% 1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
63 of 86 73% 102 60 71% 25% 1% 3% <1% <1% <1%
62 of 86 72% 101 61 64% 30% 2% 4% <1% <1% <1%
61 of 86 71% 100 62 54% 36% 3% 6% <1% <1% <1%
60 of 86 70% 99 63 45% 40% 5% 10% <1% <1% <1%
59 of 86 69% 98 64 36% 42% 9% 13% <1% <1% <1%
58 of 86 67% 97 65 28% 43% 11% 17% <1% <1% <1%
57 of 86 66% 96 66 20% 41% 16% 21% 1% <1% <1%
56 of 86 65% 95 67 13% 38% 22% 26% 2% <1% <1%
55 of 86 64% 94 68 8% 32% 26% 31% 4% <1% <1%
54 of 86 63% 93 69 5% 26% 30% 33% 6% <1% <1%
53 of 86 62% 92 70 2% 20% 32% 34% 11% 1% <1%
52 of 86 60% 91 71 1% 13% 32% 34% 17% 3% <1%
51 of 86 59% 90 72 <1% 8% 31% 30% 24% 6% 1%
50 of 86 58% 89 73 <1% 4% 28% 24% 29% 12% 2%
49 of 86 57% 88 74 <1% 2% 23% 18% 32% 19% 6%
48 of 86 56% 87 75 <1% 1% 18% 11% 30% 27% 12%
47 of 86 55% 86 76 <1% <1% 13% 7% 24% 32% 24%
46 of 86 53% 85 77 <1% <1% 10% 3% 16% 31% 40%
45 of 86 52% 84 78 <1% <1% 6% 1% 10% 26% 57%
44 of 86 51% 83 79 <1% <1% 4% <1% 4% 18% 73%
43 of 86 50% 82 80 <1% <1% 2% <1% 2% 11% 85%
42 of 86 49% 81 81 <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 5% 93%
40 of 86 47% 79 83 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
30 of 86 35% 69 93 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
20 of 86 23% 59 103 X X <1% X <1% <1% >99%
10 of 86 12% 49 113 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 86 0% 39 123 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs