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Sun May 31 11:00 pm

MLB - Week 11 of 27

Nationals What If?

The Nationals What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Nationals play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Nationals What If?

Next Game - Marlins (26‑34)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 32 29 2% 4% 5% 13% 11% 11% 54%
Current Standings 31 29 2% 3% 5% 13% 11% 11% 56%
Lose Next Game 31 30 1% 3% 4% 12% 11% 11% 59%


Current Series - Marlins (26‑34) - 3 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Nationals Sweeps 34 29 2% 4% 5% 15% 12% 11% 51%
Current Standings 31 29 2% 3% 5% 13% 11% 11% 56%
Marlins Sweeps 31 32 1% 2% 4% 10% 10% 10% 64%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
102 of 102 100% 133 29 >99% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
100 of 102 98% 131 31 >99% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
90 of 102 88% 121 41 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
82 of 102 80% 113 49 95% 3% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
81 of 102 79% 112 50 93% 4% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1%
80 of 102 78% 111 51 90% 6% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1%
79 of 102 77% 110 52 86% 8% <1% 6% <1% <1% <1%
78 of 102 76% 109 53 80% 10% <1% 9% <1% <1% <1%
77 of 102 75% 108 54 75% 13% <1% 12% <1% <1% <1%
76 of 102 75% 107 55 68% 16% 1% 15% <1% <1% <1%
75 of 102 74% 106 56 62% 19% 1% 17% <1% <1% <1%
74 of 102 73% 105 57 54% 23% 2% 21% <1% <1% <1%
73 of 102 72% 104 58 46% 25% 3% 26% <1% <1% <1%
72 of 102 71% 103 59 38% 26% 4% 32% <1% <1% <1%
71 of 102 70% 102 60 32% 27% 5% 35% <1% <1% <1%
70 of 102 69% 101 61 25% 28% 7% 39% 1% <1% <1%
69 of 102 68% 100 62 19% 27% 9% 44% 1% <1% <1%
68 of 102 67% 99 63 14% 25% 11% 48% 2% <1% <1%
67 of 102 66% 98 64 10% 23% 12% 50% 4% <1% <1%
66 of 102 65% 97 65 6% 20% 14% 52% 7% <1% <1%
65 of 102 64% 96 66 4% 16% 15% 52% 11% 1% <1%
64 of 102 63% 95 67 2% 12% 16% 51% 17% 2% <1%
63 of 102 62% 94 68 1% 9% 16% 47% 23% 4% <1%
62 of 102 61% 93 69 <1% 5% 15% 42% 29% 8% 1%
61 of 102 60% 92 70 <1% 4% 13% 34% 34% 13% 2%
60 of 102 59% 91 71 <1% 2% 12% 25% 38% 19% 5%
59 of 102 58% 90 72 <1% 1% 9% 19% 36% 26% 9%
58 of 102 57% 89 73 <1% <1% 7% 12% 32% 31% 16%
57 of 102 56% 88 74 <1% <1% 5% 7% 26% 34% 28%
56 of 102 55% 87 75 <1% <1% 4% 4% 20% 34% 39%
55 of 102 54% 86 76 <1% <1% 2% 2% 13% 30% 53%
54 of 102 53% 85 77 <1% <1% 1% 1% 7% 23% 68%
53 of 102 52% 84 78 <1% <1% 1% <1% 4% 16% 79%
52 of 102 51% 83 79 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 88%
51 of 102 50% 82 80 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 94%
50 of 102 49% 81 81 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 97%
40 of 102 39% 71 91 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
30 of 102 29% 61 101 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
20 of 102 20% 51 111 X X <1% X X <1% >99%
10 of 102 10% 41 121 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 102 0% 31 131 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs