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Sun Sep 14 10:45 pm

MLB - Week 27 of 28

Padres What If?

The Padres What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Padres play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Padres What If?

Next Game - Mets (77‑73)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 83 68 <1% <1% 18% 7% 75% 1% <1%
Current Standings 82 68 <1% <1% 13% 5% 79% 2% <1%
Lose Next Game 82 69 <1% <1% 9% 4% 83% 3% <1%


Current Series - Mets (77‑73) - 3 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Padres Sweeps 85 68 <1% <1% 30% 10% 60% <1% <1%
Current Standings 82 68 <1% <1% 13% 5% 79% 2% <1%
Mets Sweeps 82 71 <1% <1% 4% 1% 85% 9% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% 23% 5% 70% 1% <1%
Current Standings <1% <1% 13% 5% 79% 2% <1%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 6% 4% 86% 3% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Phillies beats Dodgers
   Padres beats Mets
 Worst Case Scenario
   Dodgers beats Phillies
   Mets beats Padres
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
12 of 12 100% 94 68 1% 20% 71% 7% 1% ^ ^
11 of 12 92% 93 69 <1% 5% 76% 13% 5% ^ ^
10 of 12 83% 92 70 <1% 1% 64% 18% 18% ^ ^
9 of 12 75% 91 71 <1% <1% 43% 17% 40% ^ ^
8 of 12 67% 90 72 X <1% 24% 11% 65% ^ ^
7 of 12 58% 89 73 X <1% 10% 5% 84% ^ ^
6 of 12 50% 88 74 X X 4% 2% 95% <1% ^
5 of 12 42% 87 75 X X 1% <1% 98% 1% <1%
4 of 12 33% 86 76 X X <1% <1% 95% 5% <1%
3 of 12 25% 85 77 X X <1% <1% 77% 22% 1%
2 of 12 17% 84 78 X X <1% X 43% 46% 11%
1 of 12 8% 83 79 X X X X 12% 43% 45%
0 of 12 0% 82 80 X X X X 1% 15% 84%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs