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Sun Jul 5 1:45 am

MLB - Week 15 of 27

Pirates What If?

The Pirates What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Pirates play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Pirates What If?

Next Game - Nationals (46‑44)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 46 45 <1% <1% 1% 3% 6% 8% 82%
Current Standings 45 45 <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 84%
Lose Next Game 45 46 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 7% 86%


Current Series - Nationals (46‑44) - 1 Remaining Game

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Pirates Sweeps 46 45 <1% <1% 1% 3% 6% 8% 82%
Current Standings 45 45 <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 84%
Nationals Sweeps 45 46 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 7% 86%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
72 of 72 100% 117 45 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
70 of 72 97% 115 47 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
65 of 72 90% 110 52 94% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
64 of 72 89% 109 53 91% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
63 of 72 88% 108 54 87% 13% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
62 of 72 86% 107 55 82% 18% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
61 of 72 85% 106 56 76% 24% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
60 of 72 83% 105 57 68% 30% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
59 of 72 82% 104 58 59% 38% 1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
58 of 72 81% 103 59 51% 43% 2% 3% <1% <1% <1%
57 of 72 79% 102 60 42% 49% 4% 6% <1% <1% <1%
56 of 72 78% 101 61 32% 53% 6% 9% <1% <1% <1%
55 of 72 76% 100 62 24% 54% 9% 13% <1% <1% <1%
54 of 72 75% 99 63 16% 51% 14% 19% <1% <1% <1%
53 of 72 74% 98 64 11% 46% 18% 25% 1% <1% <1%
52 of 72 72% 97 65 6% 38% 21% 33% 2% <1% <1%
51 of 72 71% 96 66 3% 29% 24% 40% 3% <1% <1%
50 of 72 69% 95 67 1% 20% 26% 46% 7% <1% <1%
49 of 72 68% 94 68 1% 13% 24% 49% 13% 1% <1%
48 of 72 67% 93 69 <1% 7% 21% 48% 21% 3% <1%
47 of 72 65% 92 70 <1% 3% 16% 43% 30% 7% 1%
46 of 72 64% 91 71 <1% 1% 11% 34% 38% 14% 2%
45 of 72 63% 90 72 <1% <1% 8% 24% 40% 22% 6%
44 of 72 61% 89 73 <1% <1% 4% 14% 37% 32% 12%
43 of 72 60% 88 74 <1% <1% 2% 8% 29% 37% 24%
42 of 72 58% 87 75 <1% <1% 1% 3% 19% 36% 40%
41 of 72 57% 86 76 <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 30% 58%
40 of 72 56% 85 77 <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 20% 75%
39 of 72 54% 84 78 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 87%
38 of 72 53% 83 79 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 95%
30 of 72 42% 75 87 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
20 of 72 28% 65 97 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
10 of 72 14% 55 107 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 72 0% 45 117 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs