The Most Important Games for the Red Sox are those games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Red Sox final playoff standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Red Sox fans can use this table to identify the most interesting games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Remaining Games Winner |
Red Sox Resultant Playoff Probabilities | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |||
| Red Sox (83‑70) vs Rays (75‑78) 3 Games Remaining |
56 | Red Sox Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 16% | 56% | 23% | 6% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Rays Sweeps 3 Games | X | X | X | <1% | 9% | 32% | 58% | ||
| Twins (66‑86) vs Guardians (81‑71) 4 Games Remaining |
35 | Twins Sweeps 4 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 36% | 47% | 11% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Guardians Sweeps 4 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 24% | 25% | 46% | ||
| Marlins (73‑80) vs Rangers (79‑74) 3 Games Remaining |
10 | Marlins Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 32% | 40% | 23% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Rangers Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 30% | 31% | 33% | ||
| Mariners (84‑69) vs Astros (84‑69) 3 Games Remaining |
8 | Mariners Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 47% | 26% | 21% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Astros Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 31% | 34% | 29% | ||
| Orioles (72‑80) vs Yankees (85‑67) 4 Games Remaining |
4 | Orioles Sweeps 4 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 19% | 23% | 31% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Yankees Sweeps 4 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 35% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Tigers (85‑68) vs Braves (70‑83) 3 Games Remaining |
0 | Tigers Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 32% | 36% | 26% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Braves Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 32% | 36% | 27% | ||
| Royals (76‑77) vs Blue Jays (89‑64) 3 Games Remaining |
0 | Royals Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 32% | 35% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Blue Jays Sweeps 3 Games | X | X | X | 5% | 32% | 36% | 27% | ||
| Brewers (93‑59) vs Angels (69‑83) 1 Game Remaining |
0 | Brewers Sweeps 1 Game | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Angels Sweeps 1 Game | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Pirates (65‑88) vs Athletics (72‑81) 3 Games Remaining |
0 | Pirates Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Athletics Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| White Sox (57‑96) vs Padres (83‑70) 3 Games Remaining |
0 | White Sox Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Padres Sweeps 3 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Red Sox Resultant Playoff Probabilities | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |||
| Red Sox (83‑70) vs Rays (75‑78) |
19 | Red Sox Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 8% | 39% | 34% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Rays Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 24% | 37% | 36% | ||
| Twins (66‑86) vs Guardians (81‑71) |
9 | Twins Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 33% | 38% | 23% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Guardians Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 30% | 33% | 31% | ||
| Marlins (73‑80) vs Rangers (79‑74) |
4 | Marlins Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 32% | 37% | 25% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Rangers Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 35% | 29% | ||
| Mariners (84‑69) vs Astros (84‑69) |
2 | Mariners Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 35% | 34% | 26% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Astros Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 29% | 38% | 28% | ||
| Orioles (72‑80) vs Yankees (85‑67) |
1 | Orioles Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 8% | 30% | 35% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Yankees Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 33% | 36% | 27% | ||
| Royals (76‑77) vs Blue Jays (89‑64) |
1 | Royals Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Blue Jays Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 35% | 28% | ||
| Braves (70‑83) vs Tigers (85‑68) |
0 | Braves Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 32% | 36% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Tigers Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 27% | ||
| Brewers (93‑59) vs Angels (69‑83) |
0 | Brewers Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Angels Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Pirates (65‑88) vs Athletics (72‑81) |
0 | Pirates Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Athletics Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| White Sox (57‑96) vs Padres (83‑70) |
0 | White Sox Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||
| Padres Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 31% | 36% | 28% | ||