The Red Sox What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Red Sox play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 9 | 2% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 72% |
| Current Standings | 4 | 9 | 2% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 72% |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 10 | 2% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 72% |
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Red Sox Sweeps | 6 | 9 | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 70% |
| Current Standings | 4 | 9 | 2% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 72% |
| Cardinals Sweeps | 4 | 11 | 2% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 73% |
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 149 of 149 | 100% | 153 | 9 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 140 of 149 | 94% | 144 | 18 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 130 of 149 | 87% | 134 | 28 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 120 of 149 | 81% | 124 | 38 | 98% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 117 of 149 | 79% | 121 | 41 | 95% | 4% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 116 of 149 | 78% | 120 | 42 | 93% | 5% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 115 of 149 | 77% | 119 | 43 | 90% | 7% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 114 of 149 | 77% | 118 | 44 | 88% | 9% | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 113 of 149 | 76% | 117 | 45 | 84% | 12% | <1% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 112 of 149 | 75% | 116 | 46 | 80% | 14% | 1% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 111 of 149 | 74% | 115 | 47 | 75% | 17% | 1% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 110 of 149 | 74% | 114 | 48 | 69% | 21% | 2% | 8% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 109 of 149 | 73% | 113 | 49 | 65% | 23% | 2% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 108 of 149 | 72% | 112 | 50 | 58% | 27% | 3% | 12% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 107 of 149 | 72% | 111 | 51 | 52% | 29% | 4% | 15% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 106 of 149 | 71% | 110 | 52 | 45% | 32% | 5% | 17% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 105 of 149 | 70% | 109 | 53 | 39% | 33% | 7% | 20% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 104 of 149 | 70% | 108 | 54 | 32% | 35% | 8% | 23% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 103 of 149 | 69% | 107 | 55 | 26% | 34% | 10% | 25% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 102 of 149 | 68% | 106 | 56 | 21% | 34% | 12% | 28% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 101 of 149 | 68% | 105 | 57 | 16% | 33% | 13% | 30% | 7% | 1% | <1% |
| 100 of 149 | 67% | 104 | 58 | 12% | 31% | 15% | 31% | 10% | 1% | <1% |
| 99 of 149 | 66% | 103 | 59 | 9% | 28% | 17% | 33% | 12% | 2% | <1% |
| 98 of 149 | 66% | 102 | 60 | 7% | 25% | 18% | 33% | 15% | 2% | <1% |
| 97 of 149 | 65% | 101 | 61 | 5% | 22% | 20% | 32% | 18% | 4% | <1% |
| 96 of 149 | 64% | 100 | 62 | 4% | 19% | 20% | 31% | 22% | 5% | 1% |
| 95 of 149 | 64% | 99 | 63 | 2% | 16% | 20% | 29% | 25% | 7% | 1% |
| 94 of 149 | 63% | 98 | 64 | 1% | 13% | 20% | 27% | 27% | 10% | 2% |
| 93 of 149 | 62% | 97 | 65 | 1% | 11% | 20% | 24% | 29% | 13% | 3% |
| 92 of 149 | 62% | 96 | 66 | 1% | 8% | 19% | 21% | 30% | 16% | 4% |
| 91 of 149 | 61% | 95 | 67 | <1% | 6% | 18% | 19% | 31% | 19% | 6% |
| 90 of 149 | 60% | 94 | 68 | <1% | 5% | 17% | 15% | 31% | 22% | 9% |
| 89 of 149 | 60% | 93 | 69 | <1% | 4% | 16% | 13% | 30% | 25% | 13% |
| 88 of 149 | 59% | 92 | 70 | <1% | 3% | 15% | 10% | 28% | 28% | 16% |
| 87 of 149 | 58% | 91 | 71 | <1% | 2% | 13% | 8% | 27% | 30% | 22% |
| 86 of 149 | 58% | 90 | 72 | <1% | 2% | 12% | 6% | 23% | 31% | 26% |
| 85 of 149 | 57% | 89 | 73 | <1% | 1% | 11% | 5% | 20% | 30% | 33% |
| 84 of 149 | 56% | 88 | 74 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 3% | 17% | 30% | 40% |
| 83 of 149 | 56% | 87 | 75 | <1% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 14% | 28% | 46% |
| 82 of 149 | 55% | 86 | 76 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 2% | 12% | 27% | 52% |
| 81 of 149 | 54% | 85 | 77 | <1% | <1% | 6% | 1% | 9% | 24% | 59% |
| 80 of 149 | 54% | 84 | 78 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 21% | 66% |
| 79 of 149 | 53% | 83 | 79 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 17% | 72% |
| 78 of 149 | 52% | 82 | 80 | <1% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 4% | 15% | 77% |
| 77 of 149 | 52% | 81 | 81 | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 12% | 82% |
| 76 of 149 | 51% | 80 | 82 | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 9% | 86% |
| 75 of 149 | 50% | 79 | 83 | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 89% |
| 74 of 149 | 50% | 78 | 84 | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 92% |
| 73 of 149 | 49% | 77 | 85 | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 94% |
| 70 of 149 | 47% | 74 | 88 | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 98% |
| 60 of 149 | 40% | 64 | 98 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 50 of 149 | 34% | 54 | 108 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 40 of 149 | 27% | 44 | 118 | X | X | <1% | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 30 of 149 | 20% | 34 | 128 | X | X | <1% | X | X | X | >99% |
| 20 of 149 | 13% | 24 | 138 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 10 of 149 | 7% | 14 | 148 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 149 | 0% | 4 | 158 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |