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Sun Jul 6 3:30 am

MLB - Week 16 of 28

Reds What If?

The Reds What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Reds play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Reds What If?

Next Game - Phillies (52‑37)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 46 43 <1% 1% 2% 5% 8% 9% 75%
Current Standings 45 43 <1% 1% 2% 4% 7% 9% 78%
Lose Next Game 45 44 <1% 1% 1% 3% 6% 8% 80%


Current Series - Phillies (52‑37) - 1 Remaining Game

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Reds Sweeps 46 43 <1% 1% 2% 5% 8% 9% 75%
Current Standings 45 43 <1% 1% 2% 4% 7% 9% 78%
Phillies Sweeps 45 44 <1% 1% 1% 3% 6% 8% 80%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
74 of 74 100% 119 43 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
70 of 74 95% 115 47 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
60 of 74 81% 105 57 96% 3% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
59 of 74 80% 104 58 93% 5% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
58 of 74 78% 103 59 88% 9% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1%
57 of 74 77% 102 60 82% 13% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1%
56 of 74 76% 101 61 73% 19% 1% 8% <1% <1% <1%
55 of 74 74% 100 62 63% 24% 1% 12% <1% <1% <1%
54 of 74 73% 99 63 51% 29% 3% 16% <1% <1% <1%
53 of 74 72% 98 64 41% 32% 5% 22% <1% <1% <1%
52 of 74 70% 97 65 27% 34% 7% 29% 1% <1% <1%
51 of 74 69% 96 66 18% 32% 11% 36% 3% <1% <1%
50 of 74 68% 95 67 10% 28% 14% 42% 7% <1% <1%
49 of 74 66% 94 68 5% 21% 16% 44% 13% 1% <1%
48 of 74 65% 93 69 2% 14% 16% 44% 21% 3% <1%
47 of 74 64% 92 70 1% 8% 14% 39% 31% 7% 1%
46 of 74 62% 91 71 <1% 4% 12% 31% 37% 15% 2%
45 of 74 61% 90 72 <1% 2% 8% 21% 39% 25% 6%
44 of 74 59% 89 73 <1% 1% 5% 11% 35% 33% 14%
43 of 74 58% 88 74 <1% <1% 3% 6% 25% 38% 28%
42 of 74 57% 87 75 <1% <1% 1% 2% 16% 35% 46%
41 of 74 55% 86 76 <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 27% 64%
40 of 74 54% 85 77 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 80%
39 of 74 53% 84 78 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 91%
30 of 74 41% 75 87 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
20 of 74 27% 65 97 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
10 of 74 14% 55 107 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 74 0% 45 117 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs