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Sat May 23 1:45 am

MLB - Week 9 of 27

Reds What If?

The Reds What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Reds play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Reds What If?

Next Game - Cardinals (28‑21)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 27 24 1% 2% 3% 6% 8% 9% 71%
Current Standings 26 24 1% 2% 2% 6% 8% 8% 72%
Lose Next Game 26 25 1% 2% 2% 6% 7% 8% 74%


Current Series - Cardinals (28‑21) - 3 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Reds Sweeps 29 24 1% 3% 3% 7% 9% 9% 68%
Current Standings 26 24 1% 2% 2% 6% 8% 8% 72%
Cardinals Sweeps 26 27 <1% 1% 2% 4% 7% 8% 78%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
112 of 112 100% 138 24 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
110 of 112 98% 136 26 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
100 of 112 89% 126 36 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
90 of 112 80% 116 46 98% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
87 of 112 78% 113 49 94% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
86 of 112 77% 112 50 91% 8% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
85 of 112 76% 111 51 88% 11% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
84 of 112 75% 110 52 86% 14% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
83 of 112 74% 109 53 81% 17% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
82 of 112 73% 108 54 77% 21% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
81 of 112 72% 107 55 72% 24% 1% 3% <1% <1% <1%
80 of 112 71% 106 56 65% 29% 1% 5% <1% <1% <1%
79 of 112 71% 105 57 59% 32% 2% 7% <1% <1% <1%
78 of 112 70% 104 58 51% 36% 3% 10% <1% <1% <1%
77 of 112 69% 103 59 44% 38% 5% 13% <1% <1% <1%
76 of 112 68% 102 60 37% 39% 6% 18% 1% <1% <1%
75 of 112 67% 101 61 29% 38% 9% 22% 1% <1% <1%
74 of 112 66% 100 62 22% 38% 10% 27% 2% <1% <1%
73 of 112 65% 99 63 16% 34% 13% 33% 4% <1% <1%
72 of 112 64% 98 64 12% 30% 15% 37% 6% <1% <1%
71 of 112 63% 97 65 7% 26% 15% 40% 11% 1% <1%
70 of 112 63% 96 66 4% 20% 16% 43% 16% 2% <1%
69 of 112 62% 95 67 2% 15% 16% 43% 21% 3% <1%
68 of 112 61% 94 68 1% 10% 15% 40% 27% 6% <1%
67 of 112 60% 93 69 <1% 7% 13% 35% 33% 11% 1%
66 of 112 59% 92 70 <1% 4% 12% 29% 36% 16% 3%
65 of 112 58% 91 71 <1% 2% 9% 23% 38% 22% 6%
64 of 112 57% 90 72 <1% 1% 7% 16% 36% 29% 12%
63 of 112 56% 89 73 <1% 1% 5% 11% 31% 34% 19%
62 of 112 55% 88 74 <1% <1% 3% 6% 26% 35% 30%
61 of 112 54% 87 75 <1% <1% 2% 3% 18% 34% 43%
60 of 112 54% 86 76 <1% <1% 1% 1% 12% 28% 58%
59 of 112 53% 85 77 <1% <1% 1% 1% 6% 21% 71%
58 of 112 52% 84 78 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 82%
57 of 112 51% 83 79 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 89%
56 of 112 50% 82 80 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 95%
50 of 112 45% 76 86 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
40 of 112 36% 66 96 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
30 of 112 27% 56 106 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
20 of 112 18% 46 116 X X X X X X 100%
10 of 112 9% 36 126 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 112 0% 26 136 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs