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Sat Apr 25 1:45 am

MLB - Week 5 of 27

Reds What If?

The Reds What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Reds play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Reds What If?

Next Game - Tigers (14‑13)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 18 9 14% 11% 6% 11% 9% 8% 40%
Current Standings 17 9 14% 11% 6% 12% 9% 8% 41%
Lose Next Game 17 10 13% 11% 6% 11% 9% 8% 42%


Current Series - Tigers (14‑13) - 2 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Reds Sweeps 19 9 15% 11% 7% 12% 9% 8% 39%
Current Standings 17 9 14% 11% 6% 12% 9% 8% 41%
Tigers Sweeps 17 11 11% 11% 6% 11% 10% 8% 43%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
136 of 136 100% 153 9 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
130 of 136 96% 147 15 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
120 of 136 88% 137 25 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
110 of 136 81% 127 35 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
102 of 136 75% 119 43 95% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
101 of 136 74% 118 44 93% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
100 of 136 74% 117 45 90% 9% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
99 of 136 73% 116 46 87% 12% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
98 of 136 72% 115 47 84% 15% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
97 of 136 71% 114 48 79% 18% 1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
96 of 136 71% 113 49 75% 21% 1% 3% <1% <1% <1%
95 of 136 70% 112 50 69% 25% 2% 4% <1% <1% <1%
94 of 136 69% 111 51 65% 28% 3% 5% <1% <1% <1%
93 of 136 68% 110 52 59% 31% 4% 7% <1% <1% <1%
92 of 136 68% 109 53 53% 34% 4% 9% <1% <1% <1%
91 of 136 67% 108 54 46% 37% 5% 12% <1% <1% <1%
90 of 136 66% 107 55 39% 38% 8% 15% 1% <1% <1%
89 of 136 65% 106 56 33% 38% 9% 18% 1% <1% <1%
88 of 136 65% 105 57 27% 38% 11% 22% 2% <1% <1%
87 of 136 64% 104 58 22% 38% 13% 25% 3% <1% <1%
86 of 136 63% 103 59 17% 35% 14% 28% 5% <1% <1%
85 of 136 63% 102 60 13% 33% 16% 31% 7% 1% <1%
84 of 136 62% 101 61 10% 29% 17% 33% 10% 1% <1%
83 of 136 61% 100 62 7% 26% 18% 35% 13% 2% <1%
82 of 136 60% 99 63 5% 22% 18% 35% 17% 3% <1%
81 of 136 60% 98 64 3% 18% 18% 35% 21% 4% <1%
80 of 136 59% 97 65 2% 15% 18% 32% 26% 7% 1%
79 of 136 58% 96 66 1% 11% 18% 29% 30% 10% 1%
78 of 136 57% 95 67 1% 8% 17% 26% 33% 14% 2%
77 of 136 57% 94 68 <1% 6% 15% 22% 34% 18% 4%
76 of 136 56% 93 69 <1% 4% 13% 18% 35% 23% 7%
75 of 136 55% 92 70 <1% 3% 11% 14% 33% 27% 11%
74 of 136 54% 91 71 <1% 2% 11% 11% 30% 30% 17%
73 of 136 54% 90 72 <1% 1% 9% 7% 26% 33% 24%
72 of 136 53% 89 73 <1% 1% 8% 5% 22% 34% 31%
71 of 136 52% 88 74 <1% <1% 6% 3% 18% 31% 42%
70 of 136 51% 87 75 <1% <1% 5% 2% 13% 29% 52%
69 of 136 51% 86 76 <1% <1% 4% 1% 9% 25% 61%
68 of 136 50% 85 77 <1% <1% 3% <1% 6% 20% 71%
67 of 136 49% 84 78 <1% <1% 2% <1% 3% 15% 79%
66 of 136 49% 83 79 <1% <1% 1% <1% 2% 10% 86%
65 of 136 48% 82 80 <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 7% 91%
64 of 136 47% 81 81 <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 4% 95%
60 of 136 44% 77 85 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
50 of 136 37% 67 95 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
40 of 136 29% 57 105 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
30 of 136 22% 47 115 X X <1% X X <1% >99%
20 of 136 15% 37 125 X X X X X X 100%
10 of 136 7% 27 135 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 136 0% 17 145 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs