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Fri Sep 18 12:15 am

NFL - Week 2 of 18

Steelers What If?

The Steelers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Steelers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Steelers What If?

Next Game - Patriots (0‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 0 0 12% 10% 6% 4% 13% 10% 8% 37%
Current Standings 1 0 0 11% 9% 6% 4% 12% 9% 8% 43%
Lose Next Game 1 1 0 6% 8% 7% 5% 10% 9% 8% 47%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 13% 10% 7% 4% 12% 9% 8% 38%
Current Standings 11% 9% 6% 4% 12% 9% 8% 43%
Worst Case Scenario 6% 9% 7% 5% 10% 9% 8% 47%
Best Case Scenario
   Steelers beats Patriots
   Saints beats Ravens
 Worst Case Scenario
   Patriots beats Steelers
   Ravens beats Saints
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
16 of 16 100% 17 0 0 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 16 94% 16 1 0 85% 14% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
14 of 16 88% 15 2 0 58% 35% 4% <1% 3% <1% ^ ^
13 of 16 81% 14 3 0 28% 42% 15% 1% 14% 1% <1% <1%
12 of 16 75% 13 4 0 7% 28% 24% 6% 29% 6% <1% <1%
11 of 16 69% 12 5 0 1% 10% 20% 12% 33% 21% 4% <1%
10 of 16 63% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 9% 13% 21% 34% 18% 4%
9 of 16 56% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 2% 9% 7% 25% 31% 25%
8 of 16 50% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 4% 1% 7% 23% 65%
7 of 16 44% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 6% 91%
6 of 16 38% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
5 of 16 31% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 16 25% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 16 19% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 16 13% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 16 6% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 16 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs