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Tue Oct 6 3:00 am

NHL - Week 2 of 28

Penguins What If?

The Penguins What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Penguins play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Penguins What If?

Next Game - Capitals (1‑1‑0)

  Resultant Record Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L OTLi
Overtime Loses
 Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Win Next Game 3 1 0 6 16% 14% 13% - - - 6% 6% 45%
Current Standings 2 1 0 4 16% 14% 13% - - - 6% 6% 46%
Lose Next Game 2 2 0 4 14% 14% 13% - - - 6% 6% 46%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 16% 14% 13% - - - 6% 6% 45%
Current Standings 16% 14% 13% - - - 6% 6% 46%
Worst Case Scenario 14% 14% 13% - - - 6% 6% 46%
Best Case Scenario
   Penguins beats Capitals
 Worst Case Scenario
   Capitals beats Penguins
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L OTL Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
81 of 81 100% 83 1 0 166 100% ^ ^ - - - ^ ^ ^
80 of 81 99% 82 2 0 164 100% ^ ^ - - - ^ ^ ^
70 of 81 86% 72 12 0 144 97% 3% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
69 of 81 85% 71 13 0 142 95% 5% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
68 of 81 84% 70 14 0 140 92% 8% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
67 of 81 83% 69 15 0 138 87% 12% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
66 of 81 81% 68 16 0 136 81% 18% 1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
65 of 81 80% 67 17 0 134 74% 24% 2% - - - <1% <1% <1%
64 of 81 79% 66 18 0 132 66% 30% 4% - - - <1% <1% <1%
63 of 81 78% 65 19 0 130 58% 35% 6% - - - <1% <1% <1%
62 of 81 77% 64 20 0 128 50% 40% 9% - - - 1% <1% <1%
61 of 81 75% 63 21 0 126 43% 43% 13% - - - 1% <1% <1%
60 of 81 74% 62 22 0 124 37% 44% 17% - - - 2% <1% <1%
59 of 81 73% 61 23 0 122 30% 45% 21% - - - 4% <1% <1%
58 of 81 72% 60 24 0 120 24% 45% 25% - - - 6% <1% <1%
57 of 81 70% 59 25 0 118 19% 42% 30% - - - 8% 1% <1%
56 of 81 69% 58 26 0 116 16% 40% 32% - - - 11% 2% <1%
55 of 81 68% 57 27 0 114 13% 36% 35% - - - 13% 3% <1%
54 of 81 67% 56 28 0 112 10% 34% 36% - - - 16% 4% <1%
53 of 81 65% 55 29 0 110 9% 30% 37% - - - 18% 5% 1%
52 of 81 64% 54 30 0 108 6% 27% 37% - - - 20% 8% 1%
51 of 81 63% 53 31 0 106 5% 24% 37% - - - 21% 11% 2%
50 of 81 62% 52 32 0 104 4% 21% 35% - - - 23% 13% 4%
49 of 81 60% 51 33 0 102 3% 18% 35% - - - 24% 15% 5%
48 of 81 59% 50 34 0 100 3% 16% 33% - - - 23% 17% 8%
47 of 81 58% 49 35 0 98 2% 14% 31% - - - 22% 20% 11%
46 of 81 57% 48 36 0 96 2% 12% 30% - - - 22% 21% 14%
45 of 81 56% 47 37 0 94 1% 10% 27% - - - 19% 23% 19%
44 of 81 54% 46 38 0 92 1% 9% 25% - - - 17% 24% 24%
43 of 81 53% 45 39 0 90 1% 7% 23% - - - 15% 25% 30%
42 of 81 52% 44 40 0 88 1% 6% 21% - - - 13% 24% 35%
41 of 81 51% 43 41 0 86 <1% 5% 18% - - - 11% 24% 41%
40 of 81 49% 42 42 0 84 <1% 4% 17% - - - 9% 22% 48%
39 of 81 48% 41 43 0 82 <1% 3% 15% - - - 7% 21% 54%
38 of 81 47% 40 44 0 80 <1% 3% 13% - - - 6% 17% 61%
37 of 81 46% 39 45 0 78 <1% 2% 11% - - - 5% 15% 67%
36 of 81 44% 38 46 0 76 <1% 2% 9% - - - 3% 13% 73%
35 of 81 43% 37 47 0 74 <1% 1% 8% - - - 2% 10% 79%
34 of 81 42% 36 48 0 72 <1% 1% 6% - - - 1% 9% 83%
33 of 81 41% 35 49 0 70 <1% 1% 5% - - - 1% 6% 87%
32 of 81 40% 34 50 0 68 <1% <1% 4% - - - <1% 5% 91%
31 of 81 38% 33 51 0 66 <1% <1% 3% - - - <1% 3% 94%
30 of 81 37% 32 52 0 64 <1% <1% 2% - - - <1% 2% 96%
20 of 81 25% 22 62 0 44 <1% <1% <1% - - - <1% <1% >99%
10 of 81 12% 12 72 0 24 X X <1% - - - X X >99%
0 of 81 0% 2 82 0 4 X X X - - - X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home ice advantage in the playoffs